In the decade before the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln argued that slavery was a moral abomination, but he didn’t join the abolitionists who were pressing for a national ban. Instead, he fought to limit its expansion into the western territories, knowing that voters in his home state of Illinois would revolt if he went too far.
His critics condemned him as a hypocrite. But because he paid close attention to the politics of slavery, not just the morality, he got the job done.
“Public sentiment is everything,” he said during the Lincoln-Douglas debates. “With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.”
As Democrats digest the report from Robert Mueller, they need to think like Lincoln. Jumping to impeachment hearings now might seem like the right thing to do. Because when you read this report, it becomes abundantly clear that President Trump broke the law by attempting to obstruct the investigation, a felony that would justify removing him from office.
Trump issued an order to fire Mueller, with the corrupt intent of stopping an investigation he considered a threat. He tried to cripple the investigation by limiting its scope, with the same corrupt motive. And he tampered with witnesses, most explicitly by suggesting that he would pardon Paul Manafort if Manafort stonewalled investigators.
Mueller didn’t file charges, he said, because Justice Department rules forbid charging a president while he’s in office. But his report describes a three-part test to justify felony charges of obstruction, carefully measures the evidence against those standards, and repeatedly finds “substantial evidence” of Trump’s guilt. Attorney General William Barr somehow missed all that during his shamelessly deceptive press conference hours before the report’s release.
But for Democrats considering next steps, Trump’s guilt is not the end of it. Removing him through impeachment would require the support of 20 Senate Republicans and that won’t happen until Republican voters abandon Trump in substantial numbers, as they abandoned President Nixon during Watergate. That’s a long shot, given the hard tribal loyalties Trump voters have shown since he was elected.
Aggressive tactics could be worse than pointless: They could provoke a backlash among voters who still sympathize with Trump, improving his odds of winning re-election in 2020 and putting Congressional Democrats in swing districts at risk.
“New Jersey Democrats are particularly vulnerable on this,” says Prof. Ross Baker of Rutgers University.
Five Democrats in New Jersey have taken seats from Republicans in the last two elections, tipping the partisan balance to an unnatural and unsustainable 11-1. They are focused on survival first, and they all want the House to begin with bread-and-butter issues, like cutting the cost of prescription drugs, rebuilding the infrastructure, and boosting incomes. Party leaders like Speaker Nancy Pelosi agree.
So, does this mean that Democrats should shrug off Mueller’s report and move on?
Not so fast. Let’s get back to Lincoln.
He didn’t quit when he concluded his voters were not ready for abolition. He tapped the brakes and looked for new political openings as he tried to sway public opinion. He ran for president. He used executive power in 1863 to free the slaves in rebel states, then amended the Constitution in 1865 to end it forever, coast to coast. He was no hypocrite; he was a politician who practiced the art of the possible.
So, the task for Democrats is to hold hearings designed to convert public opinion on Trump, using an impartial tone, and calling credible witnesses like Mueller to describe the president’s criminal behavior. At the same time, Democrats in the House need to pass bills to rebuild our infrastructure, reform our tax system, and cut health costs.
“It does create a dilemma,” says Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-7th. “I am absolutely determined to do everything I can to get an infrastructure bill done this year and to deal with health care. But we cannot allow ourselves to fall into the trap of thinking that the price of doing that work is to ignore our duties in the Constitution. There has to be a way to responsibly address these findings, while still doing our legislative work.”
My prediction is that Trump will not be removed from office until voters do the job in 2020. But careful hearings on the Mueller report could damage him and serve as a master class on the importance of the rule of law in America. Given the grip this narcissistic grifter has over 40 percent of America, that’s probably the best we can expect.
My fear, though, is that Democrats will overreach, and Trump will win reelection in a squeaker, escaping prison for another four years in the process.
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Tom Moran may be reached at tmoran@starledger.com or call (973) 836-4909. Follow him on Twitter @tomamoran. Find NJ.com Opinion on Facebook.