NJ congressional Democrats want answers on census test; concerned about undercounting

Days before the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether the 2020 census should include a question about citizenship, New Jersey congressional Democrats on Monday requested results of a test sample currently being conducted to gauge public reaction to the potential question. 

The U.S. Census Bureau this month began sending questionnaires to about 480,000 households nationwide to test the effect on response rates of including a question about citizenship.

The census test, according to the bureau, will randomly assign households to two panels; one panel will include the question on citizenship, and the second panel will not. Preliminary results of the test are not expected until October. 

But New Jersey's congressional Democrats, led by Sens. Cory Booker and Bob Menendez and Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr., say they want to ensure that every person is counted, including in hard-to-count areas in the state, and are requesting information about the test. They requested in a letter to Wilbur Ross, secretary of the U.S Department of Commerce, that the bureau provide weekly updates on test response rates and whether the citizenship question has affected those rates.

"We are deeply concerned by the obstacles the bureau faces in conducting a full, fair, and accurate count of the U.S. population, and seek reassurance that the bureau is taking the necessary steps to mitigate these challenges,'' the letter states.

Many say that the number of households who do not respond to the 2020 census will increase if the citizenship question is included. 

A spokesman for the U.S. Census Bureau did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment on Monday. 

The delegation, according to the letter, wants to know what proportion of the sample test is going to New Jersey households and what the bureau's predictions are concerning the response rates in New Jersey with the addition of the citizenship question. They also want to know when the bureau decided to add the citizenship question on the test and the costs associated with adding the question on the sample.

They also asked what additional resources the bureau anticipates it will need to conduct follow-up visits to households that do not respond to the 2020 Census. 

They requested that the information be provided no later than July 12. 

Research by the Census Bureau published in August 2018 concluded that non-citizens are more sensitive to the inclusion of citizenship in the survey than all-citizen households. The implication, the study stated, is that adding a citizenship question to the 2020 Census would lead to lower response rates. 

Consequences of undercount

Lower response rates are a concern for every state, because census data is used to determine the number of congressional seats each state is allocated and to distribute billions in federal funds to communities. 

New Jersey already has challenges in achieving an accurate count, because it is home to a diverse population. In the past, the census has undercounted Latinos, African-Americans, foreign-born residents, children under 5, renters and those living in multifamily housing.

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In their letter, the lawmakers point to undercounts that occurred in New Jersey in 2010. About 22 percent of New Jerseyans live in hard-to-count neighborhoods or areas where one in four households did not mail back their questionnaires, they said. 

"We are acutely aware of the risks New Jersey faces in being undercounted, and how a low self-response rate could make it much harder for the bureau to include all residents of our state in the final population totals,'' they said in the letter.

Next year, for the first time, the U.S. Census Bureau will invite a majority of respondents to answer the survey online. Those who choose not to answer via the internet will have the option to respond by phone or by mail. Enumerators or census-takers will visit households where a survey is not returned. 

But technological innovations have also raised concerns from lawmakers, who point out that not everyone has access to the internet.  

"Further, low-income and rural residents are even more at risk of being undercounted as the bureau presses forward with online self-response, despite 14.7% of New Jerseyans reporting to have no access to home internet,'' the lawmakers wrote in their letter.   

Awaiting a Supreme Court decision

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the citizenship question in the coming days. In recent weeks, there have been claims that the federal government's decision to add the citizenship question may have been motivated by a desire to give an electoral advantage to Republicans and non-Hispanic whites.

A federal district judge in Maryland ruled last week that the new evidence merits consideration. In a filing Monday, the judge said new evidence paints a “disturbing picture” that racial discrimination may be the motive behind the Trump administration’s push to ask everyone in the country about citizenship status, The Associated Press reported.  

“It is becoming difficult to avoid seeing that which is increasingly clear. As more puzzle pieces are placed on the mat, a disturbing picture of the decisionmakers’ motives takes shape,” U.S. District Judge George Hazel of Maryland wrote. 

Last year, the Trump administration announced it would add the citizenship question on next year's census, saying it was necessary to accurately measure the voting-eligible population and to enforce the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

The announcement quickly drew opponents and led to court challenges. New Jersey joined 17 other states, led by New York, challenging the move to add the citizenship question. The lower courts have sided with the states, which propelled the federal government to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.