Living just a few miles from the site of yet another wildfire in the Saddleback Mountains, I get little solace from the fact that Southern California’s weather is all-too predictable.
This region had the nation’s smallest margin of day-to-day change in its weather last year, according to my trusty spreadsheet. The fact that, mathematically speaking, we live with the most predictable weather in America could sound appealing, at first blush. Same-old, same-old certainly helps manage the wardrobe or outdoor event planning.
But when you’re stuck in searing, wildfire-producing drought conditions, you might wish for some weather volatility. Like a chance of a significant rain shower to cool off or douse the burning brush.
On a typical Southern California day, what you experienced today is likely to be tomorrow’s weather, too!
I tabulated Southern California’s lack of weather variation by tossing into my trusty spreadsheet some intriguing weather data for 2017 from Forecast Advisor, a website that looks at the daily volatility in temperature and precipitation from 786 weather stations across the nation.
Looking at the ebb-and-flow of heat, chill and rain every 24 hours, the 25 Southern California weather stations tracked — from Oxnard to the Mexican border — ranked last year among places with the nation’s highest chance of repeat performances every day from Mother Nature. The farther north and east you go in the U.S., the more likely it is that tomorrow’s weather won’t be much like today’s.
So ponder these 13 patterns I found — region vs. state vs. nation — in terms of the daily changes in 2017’s high and low temperatures as well as overnight switches from dry to precipitation, or vice versa — plus my composite ranking of those weather-trend movements compiled from Forecast Advisor’s scorecard.
1. SoCal shines: On only 8.9 percent of the days in 2017 did Southern California weather go from rain-to-shine (or vice versa) vs. 14.5 percent of the time in the rest of the state and 30.9 percent elsewhere. Southern California’s daily high temperatures varied on average by 3.9 degrees a day vs. 4.2 degrees in the rest of the state and 5.7 degrees in other states. And the thermometer’s daily lows? Varied by 3.9 degrees a day in this region vs. 4.8 degrees elsewhere in California and 6.9 degrees in other states.
2. Most overall stable: San Diego’s downtown area had the nation’s least changing weather, by my composite index. Precipitation changed just 10.3 percent of the days, No. 25 nationally; highs varied only 3.2 degrees on average, No. 25 in the U.S.; and lows averaged varying 2.35 degrees, No. 4 among the stations tracked.
3. Next for stability: Santa Monica was No. 2 nationally; Oxnard and Carlsbad, tied for No. 3; and Los Angeles at LAX, the nation’s fifth most-serene climate. Yes, SoCal has the top five!
4. Most stable non-California weather: Hawaii’s Kailua Kona with a No. 6 overall ranking highlighted by two national bests: temperature highs varied by only 1.1 degrees as its lows averaged 1.7 degrees of daily change.
5. Least precipitation change: It’s the Mojave desert’s Thermal where dry-vs.-rain switches happened only 4 percent of the time. (Thermal ranked 35th overall for weather stability.)
6. Most volatile in SoCal: Lancaster. Precipitation varied just 7.9 percent of the days, 10th lowest nationally and highs varied 4 degrees, also No. 10 in the U.S. But the evening chill sets Lancaster apart: its lows varied 6.6 degrees day-to-day, ranking No. 299 nationally.
7. Our worst is still low: Please note that Lancaster, with the region’s most varied weather, looks stable on the national scale as the High Desert city ranked 104th most-predictable locale among the 786 tracked nationwide.
8. SoCal’s other volatile spots: After Lancaster, my index shows Campo (No. 86 nationally) then Ramona (67), Palmdale (64), Van Nuys (53) and Chino Hills (41).
9. Elsewhere in SoCal: From the four counties covered by the Southern California News Group, my overall national rankings out of 876 included: Hawthorne, No. 7 most predictable climate, Palm Springs (19), Blythe (21), Fullerton (22), Burbank (24), Long Beach (24), Riverside (31), Ontario (36) and Daggett (37).
10. Nation’s least predictable: Low rank went to Fryeburg, Maine, where on an average day there’s a 41.5 percent chance precipitation will be different the next day as highs vary by 7.5 degrees and lows change by 9 degrees.
11. Next in weather flip-flops: The northeastern corner of the nation was also home to the next five most-unpredictable weather patterns: No. 2 Barre, Vt., then Lebanon, N.H., Concord, N.H., Caribou, Maine, and Saint Johnsbury, Vt. It’s why packing layers is a must for any New England trip!
12. Other extremes: Nationally, the top spot for rain-or-shine flip-flops was Montgomery, N.Y., where the precipitation switches on 46 percent of the days. Biggest variations in high temperatures were in Goodland, Kan., averaging 8.8 degrees daily. And lows fluctuated the most in Lake Clear, N.Y., by 11.1 degrees on average.
13. Elsewhere: How did my overall national rankings score some well-known towns around the nation? Phoenix had the ninth most-predictable weather. There there was San Francisco at No. 14, Las Vegas (43), Seattle (72), Orlando (96), Portland (130), Austin (204), Denver (364), Chicago (365), Detroit (398), Kansas City (466) … my hometown of New York (482) … and the city I lived in for seven years with some seriously wacky weather, Pittsburgh at No. 695 of the 786!