If the coronavirus cooperates, the Pac-12 has a plan to pull off a college football season in 2020.
Oregon State has itself a brand new 10-game schedule, which has some features of the original, but it does look different. Here are our thoughts as to what to expect from the Beavers’ updated schedule, and a prediction if the pandemic steps aside and allows the games to proceed:
1. HOME COOKING EARLY
Oregon State opens the season with two consecutive home games. It’s been 14 years since the Beavers kicked off the conference season with back-to-back games in Corvallis. It didn’t work out so well in 2006, however. OSU lost both games, though the Beavers were able to rebound from the 0-2 start, finishing the season 10-4.
2. WE’VE SEEN THIS BEFORE
Oregon State finishes the season with back-to-back road games, playing at Colorado and Arizona State. If that sounds familiar, it is. A year ago, the Beavers capped the 2019 schedule with games at Washington State and Oregon. It’s unlikely to be as daunting this time around. On paper, the Colorado game appears winnable, and Oregon State beat Arizona State last season. There’s also the matter of stadiums likely to have few, if no fans this fall.
3. WHEN STARTING THE CONFERENCE SEASON 2-0
Assuming home is Oregon State’s friend and the Beavers start the season 2-0, what does it mean? OSU has started conference play 2-0 four times during the past 50 years, with decidedly mixed results. The last time it happened was 2013, when the Beavers finished 7-6, climbing over .500 with a win over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl. OSU won its first two Pac-12 games in 2012, and ended up 9-4. In 2010, a 2-0 start to conference play didn’t help momentum, as Oregon State went 5-7. The Beavers were 8-5 in 2003 after winning their first two Pac-10 games.
Interestingly, one year the Beavers didn’t start 2-0 in conference play was 2000, the historic 11-1 Fiesta Bowl season. The lone loss came in OSU’s second conference game, at Washington.
4. FIRST HALF SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DIFFICULT
Although Oregon State plays three of its first five games at home before the open Saturday on Oct. 31, the Beavers get no break in terms of competition quality. California, Oregon and Washington are expected to make up the top half of the Pac-12′s six-team North division. Playing at Utah is no picnic. The easiest of the five is a home game against UCLA, and the Bruins could be significantly improved from 2019.
On the other hand, the first four opponents of the second half — Arizona, at Stanford, Washington State, at Colorado — provide games where Oregon State should have a shot to win.
5. PLAYING THE GAME FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE CIVIL WAR IN MID-OCTOBER
Let’s face it, regardless that this is 2020 and everything seems turned upside down, Oregon State playing Oregon on Oct. 17 is plain weird. It’s only the fourth time the game will be played in October in the rivalry’s 126-year history. It is the second earliest game in rivalry history; in 1945, the Ducks and Beavers played Oct. 13, but that same season, met again on Dec. 1.
The impact of such an early rivalry game probably isn’t as significant as where it falls in the schedule. The Duck game is sandwiched between road games against Utah and Washington, making this inarguably the toughest three-game stretch of OSU’s season, if not any team in the Pac-12 in 2020.
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6. ORIGINAL OPENER WAS BETTER
It’s also indisputable that the revised schedule pitting Oregon State against California is a much tougher opener than the original schedule, which had Washington State. There will not be a better time to face WSU than the first game. The Cougars have a new coach in Nick Rolovich, who didn’t have the benefit of spring practice. WSU is also the only team that doesn’t have a quarterback to take a snap in a conference game. California, meanwhile, could be a top 20 team. The Bears are a dark horse candidate to win the North.
7. ONE POSITIVE FROM NEW SCHEDULE
When the Pac-12 decided to increase the original nine-game conference schedule by one game to 10, OSU had to pick up either Colorado or USC, the two misses on its schedule. Picking up Colorado over USC, even if it’s a road game, was a plus. USC is the likely favorite to win the South, while the Buffaloes are going through a coaching change with Karl Dorrell.
8. SPEAKING OF COLORADO AND THE WEATHER
Oregon State plays at Colorado over Thanksgiving weekend, on Saturday, Nov. 28. The first reaction is to bring your snow suit. But according to Accuweather.com, the historical temperature average for Nov. 28 in Boulder is a high of 48, and low of 24. Last year it was clear, with a high of 28, a low of 18.
9. IS THE REVISED OR ORIGINAL SCHEDULE BETTER?
It’s a tough call. The back end of OSU’s original schedule was set up for success — home games vs. UCLA, Arizona, Oregon among final four games — if the Beavers showed improvement during the season. The original opener, as we mentioned above against Washington State, was favorable.
But the revised schedule includes all games on Saturday, whereas the original had a Friday night road game at Stanford. Traditionally, that’s been a negative for Pac-12 teams. The toughest three-game stretch is found in the revised schedule, with at Utah, vs. Oregon, at Washington. The only thing close to that in the original schedule is Washington State, at Arizona State, at Washington.
10. HOW WILL THE BEAVERS FARE?
First, there has to be the assumption there will be a season. At best, it’s a coin flip. But let’s say college football pulls this off. What are the projections for Oregon State?
We’ll say 4-6. It gets off to a rocky start, as the Beavers split their first two games, but head into the bye week 1-4 after losses to Utah, Oregon and Washington. But Smith’s teams have shown improvement throughout the season during his first two years. If this year follows that course, then it’s reasonable to see OSU winning three of their next four — we’ll say wins over Arizona, Washington State and Colorado, and a loss at Stanford — to reach 4-5. They’ll fall short of .500 with a season-ending loss at Arizona State.
-- Nick Daschel | ndaschel@oregonian.com | @nickdaschel
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