Analysis: With Oregon Ducks over the football scholarship limit, expect movement

Mario Cristobal National Signing Day

University of Oregon football head coach Mario Cristobal smiles as he talks about the Ducks fifth-ranked recruiting class during a press conference at the Hatfield-Dowling Complex Wednesday, Dec. 19, 2018 in Eugene, Ore. (Andy Nelson/The Register-Guard via AP)AP

Entering the weekend, the Oregon Ducks football program sat perilously close to going over the NCAA limit of 85 scholarships for next season.

But after securing three more verbal commitments in the past 48 hours — center Logan Sagapolu, cornerback D.J. James and safety Jamal Hill — it’s clear something has to give.

As with seemingly all things in the college football universe, there’s (complicated) wiggle room, but Mario Cristobal and his coaching staff are going to have to use all of the tools at their disposal to make it work. Their situation is similar to many college football coaching staffs around the country this time of year.

Technically, Oregon currently sits at 89 projected scholarship athletes for next season, but there’s significant flexibility in that number.

Quarterback Braxton Burmeister has submitted his name to the transfer portal, tight end Ryan Bay is possibly on a one-year scholarship (status: unknown) and Sagapolu, the recent offensive line pledge, plans to take a two-year LDS mission that could begin before he officially arrives on campus.

Those outcomes would drop the number down to 86 scholarships, still putting the Ducks one spot over the limit.

And Oregon isn’t done recruiting the 2019 class.

The Ducks have scholarship offers pending for package-deal defensive linemen Ishmael and Rodney Sopsher, with Ishmael Sopsher rated the nation’s top defensive tackle, plus linebackers Daniel Heimuli and Henry To’oto’o, defensive backs Dequan Watts and Martin Emerson Jr., Alabama cornerback pledge Christian Williams, Minnesota defensive tackle pledge Kristian Williams, USC wide receiver pledge Kyle Ford, Penn State graduate transfer Juwan Johnson and others.

On paper, Oregon sits at the NCAA-maximum allowable 25 commitments in the 2019 recruiting class, but the six January early enrollees — Kayvon Thibodeaux, Ge’Mon Eaford, Josh Delgado, Cale Millen, Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu and Dru Mathis — can count toward the 2018 recruiting class, so theoretically the Ducks could take as many as 31.

It seems highly unlikely that Oregon will continue pursuing all of the aforementioned recruits (or land all of the targets they still covet), but it also stands to reason Cristobal and his coaching staff aren’t done on the recruiting trail.

What does all of that mean?

It signals that Oregon is comfortable going over the 85-scholarship limit for the time being because at least a couple of departures are coming.

Who might those be?

It’s a little unfair to project which student-athletes may be moving on to further their academic and athletic careers, but fans who are so inclined may be able to scroll through the roster, consider distance from home and a lack of playing time and come up with at least a couple of solid candidates.

As is the case with the vast majority of college football programs around the country, expect some roster movement by next fall.

-- Andrew Nemec

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