We’re taking an early look at Oregon’s opponents for the 2019 regular season. This 12-part series will feature analysis and insight from beat reporters who cover the teams Oregon will play this year.
Arizona
Game date & time: Autzen Stadium, Nov. 16
2018 record: (5-7, 4-5 Pac-12)
Coach: Kevin Sumlin, 12th year overall and 2nd year at Arizona (91-50 overall)
Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense, 0 specialists
Most important returning players: QB Khalil Tate, RB J.J. Taylor, RB Gary Brightwell, DT JB Brown, DE Jalen Harris, LB Colin Schooler, LB Tony Fields, S Tristan Cooper
Most critical departures: WR Shawn Poindexter, WR Shun Brown, WR Tony Ellison, DL PJ Johnson, CB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Insight from Arizona Daily Star Arizona beat reporter Michael Lev (@MichaelJLev):
1) Beyond health, what will be the key to Khalil Tate returning to form?
Lev: “When it comes to Tate, it’s more about will than skill. He has all the ability in the world. But he has to be willing to run, and he has to be willing to meet OC Noel Mazzone halfway. Tate wasn’t 100 percent for much of last season because of a tweaked ankle. However, there were several instances when he had room to scramble and simply elected not to. Was it because of the ankle? Or because of what he thought a QB should do in those situations? If it’s the latter, Tate needs to expunge that thought process and rely on the instincts and God-given talent that have gotten him this far. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be done within the context of the offense. Tate still needs to go through his reads. Too often last year, if the first option wasn’t open, he’d buy time and chuck the ball as far as he could downfield. Many times it worked. But it’s not a sustainable formula. In short, Tate needs to run the offense at a higher level and, if the first or second read isn’t there, take what the defense is giving him. If that’s a long ball, great. If it’s a run … that’s also fine. He doesn’t have to score a bunch of 75-yard touchdowns like he did in 2017. But a handful of 15- to 20-yard scrambles in third-down situations would go a long way.”
2) Who should be the new starting wide receivers and what do they bring to the field?
Lev: “No offensive position is undergoing a makeover quite like wide receiver. Arizona’s top three receivers from last season – Shawn Poindexter, Tony Ellison and Shun Brown – have moved on. They were productive, consistent and reliable. The only returning player with substantial experience is fifth-year senior Cedric Peterson. He’s a strong possession receiver and a determined blocker. He isn’t the big-play threat Poindexter was but still averaged 14.9 yards per catch last season. Beyond Peterson, this unit features a lot of talent and a lot of youth. Players who could emerge include redshirt sophomore Stanley Berryhill III, a slot receiver whose slippery skill set most resembles Brown’s; and freshman Boobie Curry, a four-star recruit from Houston who enrolled in January and made a strong first impression in spring. Curry (6-2, 206) is among several young receivers who fit the prototype Kevin Sumlin likes in an outside receiver.”
3) How did UA address the defensive woes this offseason?
Lev: “Fun fact: Arizona led the Pac-12 in total offense last season. Yet that only translated to a 5-7 overall record. The defense didn’t show up in blowout road losses to Houston, Utah and Washington State, and the unit has yet to break through under Marcel Yates, who’s entering his fourth season as defensive coordinator. Sumlin brought back Yates but shuffled some of the defensive assignments. Yates is now working with the safeties, who should thrive under the longtime DB coach. The biggest change to the back seven is the return from injury of veteran CB Jace Whittaker, who missed all but one series last season because of hamstring and elbow issues. He brings savvy and toughness to the secondary. Third-year pass rushers JB Brown and Jalen Harris played part-time roles last season. They’ll be put in position to make plays this year, and both are breakout candidates. Sumlin and staff tried to address the departures of space-eating defensive tackles PJ Johnson and Dereck Boles through recruiting, but the interior of the defensive line remains the team’s biggest lingering concern.”
4) Will J.J. Taylor still be leaned on as heavily or do you see the offense taking some of the load off him?
Lev: “Taylor had a career-high 293 touches last season, including 22 kickoff returns. His per-game average was 24.4. Something in the 20 range is probably perfect, and it wouldn’t be difficult to get there. Running back is Arizona’s deepest position. Junior Gary Brightwell would start at a lot of other schools. Sophomore Bam Smith impressed in limited time as a freshman. And redshirt sophomore Nathan Tilford – a former four-star recruit – hasn’t even been able to crack the rotation. The Wildcats used more two-back sets during spring practice, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see more of that during the season, especially with so much youth at wide receiver. Taylor is one of Arizona’s smartest, most trustworthy players, although he did have a fumbling issue last year. New RB coach DeMarco Murray went to work with Taylor to solve that problem, and it isn’t expected to recur in 2019.”
5) What would be a success for Kevin Sumlin in his second season?
Lev: “Sumlin’s honeymoon period ended in the fourth quarter of the regular-season finale, when Arizona blew a 19-point lead and lost 41-40 to rival ASU. Had the Wildcats won that game, last season would have been considered a moderate success. Instead, Arizona finished 5-7 – missing the postseason for the second time in three years – and Sumlin fell to 0-1 against Herm Edwards. Success in Year 2 can be clearly demarcated: Finish above .500 and beat the hated Sun Devils. The schedule is tougher this year, with Stanford and Washington back in the mix. But a 3-0 start in non-conference play – at Hawaii, vs. Northern Arizona, vs. Texas Tech – is well within reason. If that happens, the Wildcats would need to go just 4-5 in league play to finish 7-5. They went 4-5 a year ago with a ton of things going against them, including the aforementioned injuries to Tate and Whittaker. With better health, better luck and better depth via Sumlin’s first recruiting class, the program should be able to take a small step in the right direction.”
Oregon opponent early scouting reports: Auburn | Nevada | Montana | Stanford | Cal | Colorado | Washington | Washington State | USC | Arizona | Arizona State | Oregon State
Oregon storylines:
- Final stretch
Both teams will be coming off a bye, though Arizona will have Oregon State before its open week compared to Oregon at USC, and this will serve as the start of a final three-game stretch that’ll also include Arizona State for both teams. If the Ducks are still vying for the Pac-12 North, there will likely be little margin for error, especially in a home game.
- Redemption
Last year’s loss in Tucson was a trainwreck offensively. The Ducks couldn’t find a rhythm against one of the worst defenses in the league. A lot of UO offensive players will want a chance to redeem themselves from that debacle.
- Schooler brothers
It’ll be the last on-field meeting of Brenden and Colin Schooler. The brothers didn’t get involved in too many plays against each other last season but that could change.
- Justin Herbert’s late injury, Tristan Cooper’s hit on Dillon Mitchell from last year
Last year’s game also featured a pair of short-term injuries. Justin Herbert took a shot while running out of bounds late in the blowout and Dillon Mitchell was clobbered by Tristan Cooper, who said he thought “it’ll be great” to knock the Ducks leading receiver out of the game. Mitchell is gone but there’s no way Ducks receivers will forget those remarks.
Arizona storylines:
- Tate’s return to form?
One of the more stunning falls from grace last season was Khalil Tate, who was hyped as a Heisman candidate and between injuries and poor play, failed to live up to expectations. Rumors of a potential transfer surfaced in the winter but he came back for his senior season, the fate of which will be largely determined by this game.
- Defensive progress
Kevin Sumlin and his staff inherited a brutal situation on defense and the results showed. If the WIldcats can improve to merely average on that side of the ball they’ll easily be a winning team, but depth could make that a challenge.
- J.J. Taylor staking claim among Pac-12 RBs
In a fairly deep crop of Pac-12 running backs, Taylor finished second with 1,434 yards and six touchdowns last season. Will he improve on those numbers or see a decrease if Tate runs more? Only time will tell.
- Bowl eligibility
Arizona could easily enter this game with either four or five wins and it’ll likely be an underdog in each of its last three games. Even amid a rebuild, many will expect more from Sumlin if UofA finishes with a losing record again.
- Schooler vs. Troy Dye
Similar to Oregon’s game with Cal earlier in the season, two of the top linebackers in the league will be leading heir respective defenses. Schooler will likely enter the game with more tackles, but Dye will also be chasing the UO program record for career tackles.
An Oregon win would mean:
Redemption for the miserable performance in 2018. Depending mostly on the Washington State game, the Ducks could also remain undefeated at home. Regardless of the exact standings, a win will only help in the Pac-12 North race.
An Oregon loss would mean:
Back-to-back losses to a rebuilding program with what will likely be another subpar defense. Serious questions will arise as to the offensive strategy if another performance like last season occurs. It would be unfair to overstate how bad a loss might be without knowing if Tate does indeed return to form. If he’s back to being a dynamic dual-threat and UofA is vying for the South, then it’s not awful. But if Arizona is battling to get to .500 another loss in the series would be brutal.