We’re taking an early look at Oregon’s opponents for the 2019 regular season. This 12-part series will feature analysis and insight from beat reporters who cover the teams Oregon will play this year.
USC
Game date & time: Memorial Coliseum, Nov. 2
2018 record: (5-7, 4-5 Pac-12)
Coach: Clay Helton, 5th year (32-17)
Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense, 2 specialists
Most important returning players: QB JT Daniels, WR Michael Pittman Jr., WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DE Christian Rector, DT Marlon Tuipulotu
Most critical departures: RB Aca’Cedric Ware, LB Cameron Smith, LB Porter Gustin, CB Marvell Tell III, CB Iman Marshall
Insight from LA Times USC beat reporter Brady McCollough (@BradyMcCollugh):
1) How much has the mood around the program changed since the end of spring and beyond winning, how can Clay Helton sustain any of the good will he’s earned this offseason?
McCollough: “The mood change truly began with spring ball and the implementation of Graham Harrell’s take on the ‘Air Raid.’ The three months before that had been a continuation of the 5-7 disaster, with Kliff Kingsbury’s and Bru McCoy’s commitments and departures and the Trojans’ subpar 2019 recruiting class only affirming the feelings of fans who felt Clay Helton should have been fired in November. But Harrell brought a fresh energy, and it was easy to see how USC’s talent at the skill positions could thrive this fall in a simpler, stripped-down attack. The ridiculously unlikely good fortune of the post-spring period in adding McCoy back from Texas and flipping Florida transfer Chris Steele from an Oregon commitment have only added to the hopeful vibes that Helton suddenly somehow may have something ... Bru(ing)?”
2) Where did JT Daniels improve most in the spring?
McCollough: “It’s hard to know where JT improved from last season in the spring because he was being introduced to a new offensive scheme and wasn’t really able to build on anything he may have learned as a freshman. It was interesting to hear Helton say that he began to think Air Raid could be an answer in the first half of the Notre Dame game when Daniels nearly completed his first 20 passes against a tough defense, using similar short passing schemes. What it told me was that Helton always imagined this new offense being piloted by Daniels, despite the fact that the quarterback job remains open between Daniels, Jack Sears, Matt Fink and freshman Kedon Slovis who was surprisingly effective in spring."
3) Who takes over as the lead running back?
McCollough: "USC technically had a lead back last season in Aca’Cedric Ware, but the Trojans used a lot of committee when all three backs were healthy. It was a shock that five-star talent Stephen Carr didn’t have his much-awaited breakout season as a true sophomore, and he’ll be the guy that everyone is looking to as far as having the ability to take the offense to another gear if he’s healthy and functioning as expected in an offense that gets backs into space. That said, Carr has not proven to this point he can stay healthy. I expect the sturdy and versatile Vavae Malepeai to give them a solid security blanket if Carr can’t be depended on once again, and thud-maker Markese Stepp to have a role, particularly in short yardage scenarios. Mostly, I’d expect a rotation in the backfield once again.
4) With so many departures, what does the USC secondary look like on paper?
McCollough: “In the spring, the Trojans were so thin at the position that they moved over a walk-on backup quarterback to play safety, and some guys who didn’t look like they could be starters on some high-school teams were rotating in at corner. It should be better in the fall with some key guys back from injury. Five-star Olaijah Griffin was out for spring and will be expected to take over one side. He’s green, but he has the pedigree. USC caught another break with the transfer portal when Greg Johnson decided to stay in the spring. He is the most likely to start on the other side, but it should be noted he had every chance to win the job last year from the mediocre Isaiah Langley and couldn’t do it. The expectation is that Steele will get a waiver to play right away from the NCAA due to the circumstances of his leaving Florida. If that happens, Steele will compete with Griffin and Johnson immediately for a starting spot and at minimum give them talented depth. It’s a young group but it’s not without potential. At safety, Talanoa Hufanga is a leader already after emerging as a starter last year due to injuries. Isaiah Pola-Mao should be a stable force at the other safety spot. The secondary will be a mess early, but by the time USC plays the Ducks, it should be a much better unit than it will be on August 31.”
5) What does Clay Helton have to do to keep his job in 2020?
McCollough: “I engaged with USC Twitter recently about this, and the feeling I got is that — at least as far as fans are concerned — it would take a Pac-12 championship type season or at minimum winning the South, beating UCLA and not being embarrassed in any game. What Lynn Swann thinks is another matter, of course. He showed last year that he is not likely to be swayed by public opinion in his evaluation of Helton.”
Oregon opponent early scouting reports: Auburn | Nevada | Montana | Stanford | Cal | Colorado | Washington | Washington State | USC | Arizona | Arizona State | Oregon State
Oregon storylines:
- Last huge test
This is last of a critical three-game stretch that will decide Oregon’s season and the last major road test. Yes, Arizona and Arizona State remain and UA crushed the Ducks last season, but USC has one of the most talented rosters in the conference every year.
- Containing Rector
In terms of Pac-12 competition the edges of the Oregon offensive line might not face a tougher test than Christian Rector. He’s an All-Pac-12 caliber player and will pose a threat.
- CaliFlock
Oregon’s presence in Southern California is increasing and there are a lot of connections between players and coaches from the area. Kayvon Thibodeaux is from South Central L.A., safeties coach Keith Heyward coached at USC and cornerbacks coach Donte Williams is from L.A., among others. It’s a massively important recruiting ground for Oregon and many of its battles are with USC.
USC storylines:
- Helton’s status
Few coaches are entering 2019 on as hot a seat as Clay Helton. Even if things cooled down after several recruiting pick ups, once the games begin it’ll all ratchet up again. If USC is anything short of 4-1 after the first five games, Helton’s future will be all that’s talked about in the two weeks before the trip to Notre Dame. If USC were to be truly bad, there’s no guarantee Helton is even the coach. Of course, the Trojans could also be 8-0 or 7-1 and will likely be favored in nearly every game to this point.
- Progression of Daniels
JT Daniels was expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country and lead a resurgence at USC. He could still do that, but by this game it’ll be clear if that’s happening in 2019 or will have to wait. The Trojans will have already faced Stanford, Washington, Utah and Notre Dame and USC went 0-3 against those teams last season.
- Chris Steele and a reloading secondary
The Chris Steele recruiting saga between the teams will serve as the focal point of the greater issue for USC’s defense. At this point in the season the Trojans will have faced legitimate quarterbacks and receivers but the experience edge goes to Oregon’s receiving corps.
An Oregon win would mean:
It’s hard to forecast the magnitude so many games into the season. At best, it keeps the Ducks in contention in the Pac-12 after what is their last huge challenge with a bye week coming before the final three games. At absolute worst, UO is 2-3 in Pac-12 play coming in and gets back to 3-3 and can easily finish 6-3 in conference play. No matter what, the recruiting implications will be big because USC will undoubtedly make this one of its bigger recruiting weekends and many of the targets will be considering both schools.
An Oregon loss would mean:
Again, hard to know exactly how bad this would be so far into the season. Best case, it’s Oregon’s first loss in league play and the North is still there for the taking. Worst case, as if UO is already 2-3 in Pac-12 play, another loss would be devastating. The variance between the two is huge so let’s say at the very least it would be a blow to the chances of winning the conference and hurt in terms of perception, as there’s a chance this is a prime time broadcast.