Plymouth’s tourism and hospitality businesses have lost a staggering £71million in income since the coronavirus lockdown began – and the worst could be yet to come.

Estimates reveal that unless the city’s bars, restaurants, cafes, hotels and attractions are able to open in some form on July 4, the financial deficit could deepen to £141million just by the end of that month.

And it is possible that even if hospitality businesses are allowed to restart, social distancing may prove an insurmountable hurdle, meaning some may stay in mothballs until 2021.

Others may never reopen again, due to the financial losses they have already suffered or are expecting to be faced with.

Amanda Lumley, chief executive of Destination Plymouth, said that losing the vital summer months would be like “three winters in a row” for many of the businesses.

She said: “We are very worried. The lockdown has impacted the visitor economy more than any other.”

Mrs Lumley, a director and vice president of the Tourism Management Institute, said Plymouth normally receives 5.4million visitors a year, of which 4.6million, that’s 85%, are day trippers, with 14% being British people staying in the city and 1% being international or cruise tourists.

Combined, they spend £338million in the city each year, which supports 8,000 jobs, 7% of the city’s workforce.

When the supply chain is included – that’s industries such as food production – the worth to the Plymouth economy from tourism leaps to £476million.

By the end of May 2020, Plymouth will have lost 21% of this annual visitor spend, due to the Covid-19 restrictions. That equates to about £71million.

Amanda Lumley, Chief Executive of Destination Plymouth
Amanda Lumley, Chief Executive of Destination Plymouth

That will double to a £141million loss by the end of July – doubling in just two months.

That is because so many businesses in the hospitality sector make most of their income in June, July and August, Mrs Lumley explained.

And if the lockdown continues, then by the end of September it is estimated Plymouth will have lost 66% of its annual income from visitors.

This could be disastrous for the 1,600 Plymouth hospitality businesses, a mix of bars, hotels, B&Bs, restaurants, cafes, attractions, museums and galleries. Of these, 78% are very small, each employing fewer than nine staff.

She said the industry was relieved when Prime Minister Boris Johnson said hospitality businesses may be able to unlock, in phase three of his lockdown exit roadmap, from July 4, and called this: “A light at the end of the tunnel for businesses”.

Announcement - the closure notice on the doors of Vue at Barbican Leisure Park
The closure notice on the doors of Vue at Barbican Leisure Park

But, with this being dependent on the R rate, of infections, being sufficiently low, there is no certainty, and much depends on the behaviour of the public with regards to travelling and social distancing.

She said: “A lot have been asking us if they can definitely open then. But we are still very concerned. Covid-19 is a live virus and people are still dying. The community is still concerned. So we are waiting for Government guidance to say if we can reopen.

“We anticipate that will be with us in early June, so businesses can prepare, a lot of that will revolve around risk assessments.”

She said this will be critical because many small businesses are “really struggling”, and she added: “We really want our businesses to reopen, it’s crucial they have cash flow.”

Mrs Lumley welcomed the Chancellor’s package of help for business but stressed not all are eligible for the grants or loans.

So there is a threat hanging over many, especially if they lose those vital money-spinning summer months.

A South West survey has revealed that 70% of hospitality businesses believe they will fail if they lose summer trade. Mrs Lumley thinks the figure would be “slightly less” in Plymouth, as the city is a bit less seasonal, but could still mean more than 50% would be at risk.

She said many may not reopen even if the lockdown ends on July 4, because of the challenge of social distancing.

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Business Live's Plymouth journalist is William Telford, business editor at Plymouth Live. William has more than a decade's experience reporting on the business scene in the Ocean City.

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“Some are considering mothballing until next year,” she said. “That’s if they can’t make a profit working to the social distancing guidelines.”

Mrs Lumley said that if the unlock does come there may be a “bounce back” effect, with Devon and Cornwall being seen at the most desirable visitor destinations.

But that could also be a challenge with many businesses not being able to open “to capacity”, and she explained: “If they have social distancing they won’t be able to get the same number of people inside, so it’s about trying to be able to benefit from people wanting to come here on holiday and at the same time having social distancing.”

However, there are hopes a staycation boost may mean visitors are attracted out of season, and she said; “Tourism is a great sector for bouncing back. After the Foot and Mouth outbreak we had a good recovery.

“So we will do our best to make sure out businesses are ready to open at the right time and welcome visitors safely to the city.”