Realtor: ‘Dover is the new Portsmouth’

DOVER — Strafford County has experienced two successive months of declining residential real estate sales during the summer, still stifled by a lack of inventory.

Single-family home sales in the county totaled $55.8 million during July, a drop of 6.8% compared to July 2018, according to the monthly trends report from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. That comes on top of June, which saw an 11.1% drop in single-family volume compared to the previous year.

Residential condominiums didn’t fare much better. NHAR data show condo volume in July was down 33.8% to $4.3 million. In June, volume dropped 31.1%.

“We’re still looking at the lack of inventory,” said Marty Patrizi, a broker with the Bean Group in Dover. He said a recent check of availability in Dover showed 18 houses on the market; normally, it’s double that, he said.

“There isn’t enough inventory to satisfy the need,” he added.

NHAR, in its analysis, is looking at signs of a possible recession.

“Although the economy should continue to perform well for the rest of 2019, most economists see a mild recession on the horizon,” it stated, adding, “During the record-setting 121-month economic expansion, the unemployment rate has dropped from 10.0% in 2009 to 3.7%, yet many consumers continue to struggle financially.”

Home price increases, according to NHAR, are outpacing income growth, reflected in the median home price in Strafford County.

In July, the median price of a single-family home was $297,450, 4.3% higher than what it was in July 2018 and the highest it’s been in the 12-month period since July 2018.

According to Patrizi, a past president of the Dover-based Strafford County Board of Realtors, Dover’s popularity is largely responsible for that median price county-wide inching up towards $300,000.

“Dover is the new Portsmouth, so to speak,” Patrizi said. With Seacoast communities’ home prices as high as they are – $471,450 on average in July – many home buyers are looking in Dover and surrounding communities for something more affordable.

According to Patrizi, the sweet spot for homes that will sell quickly in the county is between $250,000 and $300,000.

Condo prices are more stable. The average price of a unit in Strafford County in July was $164,900, 7.3% less than the previous year. The price of a condo has ranged all year between $160,000 and $180,000.

“Low mortgage interest rates have helped offset low housing affordability, but high home prices are outpacing median household income growth,” NHAR stated.

Lack of inventory in the county and elsewhere has been an issue for many months. And homes on the market have been selling quickly, as indicated by the “days on market” data point in the NHAR analysis.

Average days on market for a single-family in July was 32, while the average days on market for a condo unit was 21.

In Rockingham County, residential real estate volume also dipped in July, prompting the Seacoast Board of Realtors to describe the dip as a “market correction.”

July home volume in Rockingham County was down 4.7% and June was down 0.2%. July condo volume was down 4.8% and 2.8%, respectively. Median prices remain comparatively high in Rockingham – a house stood at $389,900, while a condo went for $269,900.

Statewide in July, single-family volume was down by 1.9% to $633.2 million, while the median price of a house in the state was $300,000, up 0.8% from last July.

Condo sales activity was down 8.8% statewide to $109 million. The median price of a unit stood at $208,500, an increase of 1.7%.

NHAR stated new listings were up 0.6% for single-family homes but decreased 3% for condo properties. Pending sales increased 11% for single-family homes and 6.8% for condo properties.