The only thing you need to know is that no one knows. When it’s over and historians write books, the outcome of the Brexit crisis of December 2018 will seem obvious: but today no one can say what will come next. Not the Prime Minister. Not the Cabinet. Not the European Union. It’s like playing the worst Christmas board game. When anyone makes a move, someone else blocks it and the rules make no sense.
This morning the PM pulled the emergency cord and halted the vote due on her deal tomorrow night. In a humilating conference call with Cabinet ministers she climbed down, having insisted that she wouldn’t. If she had any authority left, it’s shot through now. But delay doesn’t do more than dodge the inevitable.
How did she get here? To understand, you need to dive deep into parliamentary process. The story begins a year ago, when the Conservative rebels, led by wise owl Dominic Grieve, joined forces with the Opposition to insist that there was what is called a “meaningful vote” before any Brexit deal could come into effect. If Grieve hadn’t done this, winning by just four votes, Tory Brexiteers — who denounced him at the time — would not be getting the chance now to rebel. Looking back, that was probably the PM’s best chance to get the sort of deal she wants. A stroke of her pen or a handshake in Brussels would have been enough to put Brexit in place. Now she’s being assaulted from all sides. The only thing everyone can agree on is that they don’t like her deal.
In this strange world, the question MPs spent the weekend discussing was not whether the Prime Minister might still win the vote on her Brexit deal, due tomorrow evening, but whether the vote would take place at all. Now we know it won’t.
If she had any authority left it’s shot through now. But delay just dodges the inevitable
The first clue came this morning when Michael Gove insisted that it would happen in an interview — but experts in decoding political signals spotted that he didn’t appear to say it would happen “tomorrow”. Since no normal prime minister would walk into a defeat on this scale that, she’s done the only rational thing.
But of course that only delays her date with destiny. If she doesn’t hold a vote by January 21, Grieve’s rules means she has to make a statement to Parliament. She can’t hide forever even if her party let her, which they won’t. If she dares try to hold the vote before then, can she win? Even if the PM promises to go to the EU meeting in Brussels later this week to fight for a better deal she won’t get much comfort there. At best they might tinker with the vague political declaration on the future. She’d still be in the game for a bit longer — but not have a clear way out.
Maybe one will come thanks to a quirk of the system — the decision to allow amendments to the PM’s plan to be voted on before what is supposed to be the decisive vote itself.
This falls into the obscure but important category of history-making and the man in the middle of it all is the Speaker, John Bercow. Before the vote, whenever it comes, he is due to pick six amendments from a range submitted by MPs. All of them are designed to make May unhappy. None of them offers a clear route forward on Brexit. At the moment we have several. The Lib-Dem leader Vince Cable wants to lock in a second referendum (but this isn’t the moment to try, before the PM’s plan has even been defeated).
Hardcore Tory Brexiteers want to kill the Irish backstop (the promise to the EU that if talks break down there won’t be a hard border in Ireland). The Labour front bench wants to insist on its impossible-to-make-real six tests on Brexit.
All this would leave Parliament paralysed, with no side winning — and no plan in place for March 29
Read More
Another which looked significant came from the Labour MP Hilary Benn. He’s a herbivorous gentle creature but his amendment has bite: it rejects the PM’s deal and asks for a new debate on what should happen next.
Why does such amendments matter? Because they might destroy the PM’s deal before the official vote. In normal circumstances, this would be a humiliation for the Government. But right now nothing is normal. Imagine, for instance, if MPs amended the deal to insert a Norway-style final deal with Europe, in place of May’s current plan. Many might back that. If passed it would mean defeat for the PM, but perhaps not calamity. We’d have a new way forward. That means the Prime Minister might lose by about an awkward number of votes, but not a horrific 100 plus. She could try to paint this as a narrow defeat, much better than forecast.
But her opponents have a problem, too. They can’t agree what they want instead.
On the one side are hardline Brexiteers, some of whom would be happy to see the UK crash out without a deal next March. MPs now have an emergency brake to stop them, since the European Court of Justice ruled this morning that the UK can cancel Brexit by withdrawing its use of Article 50, which sets the deadline. Even if, somehow, they insert one of their own as a death-or-glory no deal PM, Parliament could block no deal — if there is still time to do it. Sustained political paralysis between now and March is the no dealers’ best hope.
On the other side things aren’t much clearer. Some MPs in both main parties want to make Brexit work with a different long-term plan to the PM’s deal — the so-called Norway option. Some want to stop it outright with a second referendum. And then there’s the Labour frontbench, which wants to avoid talking about Brexit and trigger a general election and become the Government.
How might each of these play out? The Norway option could run something like this. In the hours after today’s delay to the meaningful vote tomorrow a strand of “sensible” Tories either try to force the prime minister to change tack — or pick an interim emergency prime minister who could pull off the trick. Or, if the Prime Minister comes back for a second try on her deal, they could pass an amendment to move to their plan B.
This would stick with existing plans for the detailed transition period (the only bit of her deal which is really agreed). But they would try to replace the existing political agreement about the future with a different form of orbit around the EU, closer economically. We’d end up with free movement of people, and paying money to Brussels. But in other areas we’d — arguably — be more independent.
If enough Labour MPs backed this, it might be a runner. But the objections to it are big. It wouldn’t win over many Tory sceptics. And for Remainers it still means Brexit, which is why they may push for a a second referendum.
The route to this is painful, too. The PM could just conceivably surprise everyone by trying to call one on her deal this week (which would be extraordinary). Or Parliament could vote for one, in the wake of the collapse of the PM’s plan.
If Labour came out of the shadows to champion the cause it might win. But it is hard to imagine a referendum actually happening without the Government supporting the process — and hard to see how any version of the current Government could endure such a crisis. Would Labour sustain a Tory government in power long enough to get to a second vote — after all, Jeremy Corbyn has made it clear he doesn’t want to stop Brexit? And we’d need to delay Article 50, too.
All this points logically to a confidence vote, and perhaps a general election. But yet again, there’s a catch. Labour doesn’t want to table a confidence vote at the moment, even with the Prime Minister in crisis, because it suspects that right now the Government would win.
Stopping an election is the one thing that would unite the Tories. The Scottish Nationalists might table a motion instead, which would leave Labour in the lurch — would it vote and lose? Inside Labour some campaigners think that with the option of an election gone, Corbyn will back a second vote on Brexit at last.
But maybe it’s not in his interests to resolve Britain’s crisis. He wants revolutionary instability.
All this would leave Parliament paralysed, with no side winning. Meanwhile, the clock would be ticking down to exit on March 29 with no plan in place. If you thought this week was going to be May’s worst, the reality may be even more horrific.