ENVIRONMENT

What climate change could mean for Wilmington

INCREASED TIDAL FLOODING: Wilmington is among the cities that suffers the most frequent nuisance tidal flooding in the U.S., particularly in areas such as the aptly named Water Street. A 2014 NOAA study found Wilmington led the nation with 71 days with nuisance flooding. Wilmington is projected to see more than 300 days of tidal flooding a year by about 2060 even in a lower emissions scenario, with some projections expecting flooding every day by the century's end. 
The climate assessment states that increasing rainfall and higher seas are likely to impact property values and economies in Southeastern coastal cities such as Wilmington.
"Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century," according to the report.
[STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
INCREASED TIDAL FLOODING: Wilmington is among the cities that suffers the most frequent nuisance tidal flooding in the U.S., particularly in areas such as the aptly named Water Street. A 2014 NOAA study found Wilmington led the nation with 71 days with nuisance flooding. Wilmington is projected to see more than 300 days of tidal flooding a year by about 2060 even in a lower emissions scenario, with some projections expecting flooding every day by the century's end. The climate assessment states that increasing rainfall and higher seas are likely to impact property values and economies in Southeastern coastal cities such as Wilmington. "Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century," according to the report. [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
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Should Wilmington be braced for more hurricanes like Matthew and Florence? Maybe, according to a federal climate report.
The 4th National Climate Assessment report, released the day after Thanksgiving, paints a picture of a nation that will be forced over the coming decades to increasingly cope with the impacts of a warmer, wetter climate.
On the Atlantic coast, according to the report, those impacts include stronger hurricanes powered by warmer seas and coastal areas that will have to make difficult choices as seas quickly rise.
Wilmington suffered from Hurricane Florence this fall, with some of the impacts including downed trees, like this one shown across Forest Hills Drive, and severe flooding. 
Using the 2017 season that included Hurricanes Harvey and Maria as an example the report stated warmer seas may not lead to more frequent hurricanes, but may have led to rapid intensification and wetter storms.
Florence was the wettest storm in Wilmington history and saw rapid intensification in the Atlantic.
"The intensity of heavy rain, including heavy rain produced by tropical cyclones, increases in a warmer world," the report stated. "Easterling et al. concluded that the heaviest rainfall amounts from intense storms, including hurricanes, have increased by 6% to 7%, on average, compared to what they would have been a century ago."
 [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
Should Wilmington be braced for more hurricanes like Matthew and Florence? Maybe, according to a federal climate report. The 4th National Climate Assessment report, released the day after Thanksgiving, paints a picture of a nation that will be forced over the coming decades to increasingly cope with the impacts of a warmer, wetter climate. On the Atlantic coast, according to the report, those impacts include stronger hurricanes powered by warmer seas and coastal areas that will have to make difficult choices as seas quickly rise. Wilmington suffered from Hurricane Florence this fall, with some of the impacts including downed trees, like this one shown across Forest Hills Drive, and severe flooding. Using the 2017 season that included Hurricanes Harvey and Maria as an example the report stated warmer seas may not lead to more frequent hurricanes, but may have led to rapid intensification and wetter storms. Florence was the wettest storm in Wilmington history and saw rapid intensification in the Atlantic. "The intensity of heavy rain, including heavy rain produced by tropical cyclones, increases in a warmer world," the report stated. "Easterling et al. concluded that the heaviest rainfall amounts from intense storms, including hurricanes, have increased by 6% to 7%, on average, compared to what they would have been a century ago." [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
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MORE RAINFALL: Wilmington is experiencing its wettest year on record, according to the local National Weather Service office, with 95.83 inches of rainfall as of December 7.
Hurricane Florence played a major role in that, dropping 23.02 inches of rain from September 13 to September 16, but the area also recorded its most ever days above 1.5, 3 and 4 inches of rain.
According to the climate report, heavy downfalls like the ones Wilmington has seen this year are becoming more common. And the Southeast saw four floods that caused at least $1 billion in damage between 2014 and 2016, including Hurricane Matthew’s $10.1 billion.
“The combined effects of changing extreme rainfall events and sea level rise are already increasing flood frequencies, which impacts property values and infrastructure viability, particularly in coastal cities,” the report states.
[STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
MORE RAINFALL: Wilmington is experiencing its wettest year on record, according to the local National Weather Service office, with 95.83 inches of rainfall as of December 7. Hurricane Florence played a major role in that, dropping 23.02 inches of rain from September 13 to September 16, but the area also recorded its most ever days above 1.5, 3 and 4 inches of rain. According to the climate report, heavy downfalls like the ones Wilmington has seen this year are becoming more common. And the Southeast saw four floods that caused at least $1 billion in damage between 2014 and 2016, including Hurricane Matthew’s $10.1 billion. “The combined effects of changing extreme rainfall events and sea level rise are already increasing flood frequencies, which impacts property values and infrastructure viability, particularly in coastal cities,” the report states. [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
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SEA-LEVEL RISE: Rising seas are, according to the report, already causing additional coastal floods in the Southeast.
Coastal communities will be see higher maintenance costs and lower property values in scenarios where sea-level rise is held between 1 foot and 4.3 feet, according to the report, and would be “transformed” in a worst-case scenario where seas would rise about 8 feet by 2100.
Seas have already risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880, the report states, with 3 inches coming since 1990. 
“This recent increase in the rate of rise is projected to accelerate in the future due to continuing temperature increases and additional melting of land ice,” the assessment states.
 [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
SEA-LEVEL RISE: Rising seas are, according to the report, already causing additional coastal floods in the Southeast. Coastal communities will be see higher maintenance costs and lower property values in scenarios where sea-level rise is held between 1 foot and 4.3 feet, according to the report, and would be “transformed” in a worst-case scenario where seas would rise about 8 feet by 2100. Seas have already risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880, the report states, with 3 inches coming since 1990. “This recent increase in the rate of rise is projected to accelerate in the future due to continuing temperature increases and additional melting of land ice,” the assessment states. [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
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COASTAL IMPACTS: As seas rise, coastal areas such as North Topsail Beach will see some of the most dramatic impacts, particularly during storms. 
Homes on the north end of North Topsail are surrounded by sand bags now, protections that become even more vital during storms such as Florence when water is shoved at the beach.
"Higher sea levels will cause the storm surges from tropical storms to travel farther inland than in the past, impacting more coastal properties," the climate assessment stated.
Sea-level rise and storm surge could cost as much as $60 billion annually by 2050 and $99 billion by 2090, with lower-emission scenarios projecting cumulative damage at $56 and $79 billion.
 [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
COASTAL IMPACTS: As seas rise, coastal areas such as North Topsail Beach will see some of the most dramatic impacts, particularly during storms. Homes on the north end of North Topsail are surrounded by sand bags now, protections that become even more vital during storms such as Florence when water is shoved at the beach. "Higher sea levels will cause the storm surges from tropical storms to travel farther inland than in the past, impacting more coastal properties," the climate assessment stated. Sea-level rise and storm surge could cost as much as $60 billion annually by 2050 and $99 billion by 2090, with lower-emission scenarios projecting cumulative damage at $56 and $79 billion. [STARNEWS FILE PHOTO]
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