Austin's growth engine still running hot

The great Austin population boom continues.

For the eighth consecutive year, the five-county Austin metropolitan area that includes Travis, Bastrop, Hays, Williamson and Caldwell counties was the fastest-growing area in the country among metros with at least 1 million people, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released Thursday.

Last year, the Austin-Round Rock metro area gained 53,086 people — roughly 70% as a result of international and domestic migration — to bring the population to 2,168,316, or a 2.5% increase from 2017, the population estimates show.

Among those who moved to Austin, some say the factors that drew them to the region were good jobs, a lower cost of living and good quality of life.

Justin Plotnick said he moved from Chandler, Ariz., in October after his wife got a job offer they couldn't refuse. He said they also were drawn to the area for its good schools, low crime rate, music and outdoor activities.

"We had been looking to move to Austin because we had been doing a lot of research on the city, and we thought it would be a great place to raise our children and had job opportunities in the IT field," said Plotnick, whose family is renting while they scour for a house. "We aren't concerned about the cost of living because it is less expensive than where we moved from."

Despite the continued influx of people coming to the Austin metro area, growth has slowed slightly in recent years, with population gains falling from their all-time high of 3.16% in 2014.

City of Austin demographer Ryan Robinson, said the Texas capital saw a major boom ahead of other major metropolitan areas between 2011 and 2016 because of its especially vibrant economy and availability of jobs after the Great Recession 10 years ago.

As the rest of the country has started to bounce back and the unemployment rate has fallen nationwide, people are starting to flood to other large metro areas, Robinson said. Trailing just behind Austin in terms of percentage growth was the Orlando metro area in central Florida, which grew by 2.39%, followed by the Las Vegas metro area, the Raleigh, N.C., and the Phoenix metro areas — all areas in the south and west, the country's largest growth spots. However, that hasn't stopped people from coming to Austin, to Robinson's surprise.

"I think that Greater Austin tends to exert this gravitational pull for households of all ages," he said. "That pull is being driven by job creation. But without the high quality of life that comes with it we wouldn’t continue to see the durable, sustained rapid growth that we are."

'It's where we want to be'

Roxi Copland said Austin had been on her and her husband's short list of places to live because it has a top-tier university, warm weather and a great music scene. When they saw a job opening at the University of Texas, husband Scott Graham, who is a professor, was quick to apply. They struggled to find a place to live, touring more than 100 properties before they put in a bid on a place in north Central Austin.

"It's 60 percent more money for about 15 percent less space compared to what we had in Milwaukee," Copland said. "But it's Austin, and this is where we want to be."

Much of the boom in Austin can be attributed to rapid growth in suburban counties outside the city, rather than in the urban core. Williamson and Hays counties were among the fastest-growing counties in Texas last year, with 3.8% and 3.9% population growth, respectively, figures show. Travis County, by comparison, grew much more slowly, by 1.7%, the data shows.

Williamson County grew by 20,771 people, its largest annual increase since these estimates started in 2010. Travis County's population went up 20,972, which was its lowest annual estimated increase this decade, figures show.

"The sex appeal of the region is still largely found within the character of the city, but we are really becoming more regional and multimodal," Robinson said. "Williamson County is almost becoming its own subpiece, and it’s happy about it."

Round Rock saw the construction of 900 new single-family homes last year, the most of any year in the past decade, said the city's planning director, Brad Wiseman. He said those homes, combined with new apartments and commercial development, made 2018 the city's busiest year for construction. Three more huge subdivisions in the works will house an additional 2,000 people in the coming years.

"What I am seeing more is that Williamson County is becoming a place where you can live, work and play," Round Rock Mayor Craig Morgan said. "We are becoming our own cities. We are not just bedroom communities anymore."

The latest Central Texas housing report from the Austin Board of Realtors shows that single-family home sales were up 11% in Hays County last month and up 9% in Williamson County. Austin, on the other hand, saw a 5% decline in home sales last month and Travis County a 4% decline, the data shows. Austin and Travis County home prices are considerably higher than in the suburbs.

"An increasing number of buyers, particularly first-time buyers, are flocking to the outskirts of town and into neighboring counties. Both Hays and Williamson counties have experienced significant growth in recent years," said Libby Arnold, who works for Realty Austin with her husband, Alfredo Bernal. "Many new home communities in these areas and other hot spots within Travis County like Pflugerville, Southeast Austin and Manor are attractive and affordable to buyers."

Slowdown in urban core

Chris Watson, 27, a homebuilder, is among those leaving Austin for the suburbs because of the high cost of living. He and his wife, who is a teacher, are closing on a house in Round Rock, which they say is about $300,000 cheaper than the average home in Austin.

"We had to decide not to try and plan for the next five to 10 years and instead buy somewhere that we can afford but also have opportunities in the future when we need them," said Watson, who was born and raised in Austin. "It is equal parts sad and frustrating to be pushed out of the city we call home by so many who don’t fully appreciate Austin’s roots and history."

Robinson said the slowed growth in Travis County might show some fraying in the urban core, as it falls victim to circumstances that usually plague big metropolitan regions, such as traffic, congestion and gentrification.

The city of Austin's growth figures won't be released for about a month, but Robinson said he expects to see declining growth. The official updated census will be released next year.

"I think the things we have known about and worried about, traffic congestion and cost of living, I believe they are beginning to catch up a bit," Robinson said. "Jobs are decentralizing but not at the same rate, which is why our traffic is so awful. People are coming into the central core for jobs, and there's no really good way to do it with no regional train."

He said the key to the Austin metro area's future success will hinge on good regional planning, which he says so far has been lacking.

"Austin is always going to be the driving force for the work. They are the big city in the mix. All these other cities on the outside, that’s where people are going to live," said Morgan, who also sits on the board of the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, which develops transportation plans for the region. "We all have to be regional players and find the best solution for everybody."

Overall, the Texas population in 2018 increased by more than 379,000, the most of any state. The populations in the petroleum-rich Midland and Odessa metro areas both grew by more than 3%, fast enough to be in the top 10 in the nation. It's a rebound for the areas: Odessa's population had declined between 2015 and 2017, and Midland's growth had slowed over that time.

Fast stats from census estimates

• The five-county Austin-Round Rock metro passed Kansas City for 30th largest metro area in the nation.

• Travis County became the nation's 34th largest in population, passing Cuyahoga County, Ohio.

• Populations declined in 94 Texas counties, including a few affected by Hurricane Harvey.

• Four of the nation's 10 fastest-growing counties were in Texas: Comal, Kaufman, Midland and Hood.

• The Midland metro area in West Texas was the nation's fastest-growing metro area.

Interactive: Census population estimates mapped