Analysts: Oregon GOP recall of Gov. Brown unlikely to succeed, could serve other goals

The effort to recall Democratic Gov. Kate Brown launched last week by the Oregon Republican Party is unlikely to succeed, according to state political analysts. But there are other, more attainable reasons for launching the campaign.

Bill Lunch, political science professor emeritus at Oregon State University, said the recall itself is a "quixotic effort" because even if organizers meet the requirement to gather and submit 280,000 valid signatures by mid-October, Brown won re-election just last November with more than 50 percent of the vote. 

Republican groups began collecting signatures in the days that followed the announcement, holding recall petition signing events in cities across Oregon. What remains to be seen is how much money the party itself will put into the recall. 

"That doesn't mean a well-financed effort couldn't collect the signatures," Lunch said. "They would essentially buy the signatures."

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Oregon Republican Party leaders did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

But other potential benefits for the state's minority party include fundraising opportunities, "party unity," and maintaining political engagement among Republicans after a contentious legislative session that saw the political activation of many rural Oregonians.

Under the hashtag #TimberUnity, hundreds of truckers, loggers and ranchers rallied in front of the Oregon Capitol on June 27 to oppose a sweeping greenhouse gas cap-and-trade bill and in support of 11 Oregon Republican senators who had fled the state in protest of the bill.

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Republicans contend the rally helped kill House Bill 2020, showing that Republicans had support from voters in their districts to fight against the bill by any means necessary. Senate Democrats had announced days earlier that the bill did not have the votes to pass.

There were also large rallies at the Capitol over an omnibus gun control bill, a bill that would remove the nonmedical vaccine exemption for schoolchildren and a bill allowing undocumented immigrants to get driver's licenses (only the latter of the three passed). 

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In the recall filing, Oregon Republican Party Chairman Bill Currier included each of these bills as examples of how Brown has "subjected the people of Oregon to a long line of abuses of power."

He also cited Brown's stated intention to use her executive powers to implement some greenhouse gas emission regulations regardless of the cap-and-trade bill's defeat in the Legislature. 

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Jim Moore, political science professor at Pacific University, said no recent attempt to recall a governor has collected enough signatures to put the issue on the ballot. There is no reason to expect this time will be different, especially considering the high bar of 280,050 signatures — 15 percent of the votes cast for governor in the last gubernatorial election.

However, "party unity" might be the most obvious benefit of the recall attempt.

"It gets Republicans to focus in ... get angry at the other side and get people to focus on voting against something," Moore said. "The counter to that argument is that the 2020 election is a long way away."

Lunch said he sees parallels between the recall attempt in Oregon and the racist statements President Donald Trump has made recently against a group of left-wing Congresswomen. 

Both efforts, he said, are an attempt to stimulate enthusiasm in the Republican base.

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Oregon is also reportedly being eyed by the Trump campaign as one state where they will try to expand Republican support in 2020.

Political analysts nationwide considered a Trump victory in Oregon to be an unlikely prospect — the state's population center in Portland is one of the most liberal areas in the country — but it could give Oregon Republicans another way to maintain momentum through next November.

Contact Connor Radnovich at cradnovich@statesmanjournal.com or 503-399-6864, or follow him on Twitter at @CDRadnovich