Just how good would a Volcanoes super team be?
KEIZER – In an alternate baseball universe, if the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes fielded a “super team” of only players who helped the San Francisco Giants win the 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series and the 2016 National League Wild Card, would that team automatically win the Northwest League?
I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look. First, the parameters: We only factored how each player would have performed when they were their Volcanoes-selves. So, Pablo Sandoval isn’t the Panda who crushed clutch World Series home runs, rather we used the 18-year-old Pablo Sandoval of the 2005 Volcanoes who played 75 games, batted .330 with 3 home runs, 50 RBI and scored 46 runs (keep the runs scored total in your back pocket for later).
We give credit to players in the 2016 season that may not have been in the Wild Card game and/or the NL Division Series with the Chicago Cubs, but who none-the-less were on the field that season to get the Giants back into the playoffs. We also had to be a little creative in the field, but that’s why they call it an alternative universe.
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Our Salem-Keizer Volcanoes super team:
- SS: Brandon Crawford
- DH/PH: Matt Duffy
- 2B: Joe Panik
- 3B: Pablo Sandoval
- CF: Mac Williamson
- C: Buster Posey
- 1B: Conor Gillaspie
- RF: Nate Schierholtz
- LF: Travis Ishikawa
- DH/PH: Trevor Brown
- ---
- P: Tim Lincecum
- P: Jonathan Sanchez
- P: Ryan Vogelsong
- P: Chris Stratton
- P: Steven Okert
- P: Joe Nathan
- CL: Sergio Romo
Now that we have our roster set, we put them up against the rest of the 2018 Northwest League (the rationale being the last completed NWL season). First, we projected how each of our of Volcanoes super team players would have produced through the full 76-game season. We platooned Matt Duffy and Trevor Brown not to overinflate the Volcanoes super team stats.
In cases where players only played partial or even a few games for the Volcanoes, we extrapolated for the appropriate number of appearances in the full season.
We also added extra weight (ie, made it harder for the Volcanoes super team), if a Volcanoes player only played a few games and simply dominated everyone – hence why they moved up in the organization after just a few games. We weighted down some of their projected Northwest League full season numbers.
Example: Tim Lincecum in 2006 played for the Volcanoes and in two games gave up a single hit and basically looked ready to pitch and win against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In our model, we don’t project Tim having a 0.00 ERA, but certainly feel more than fair projecting yielding 18 runs (keep that stat too in your back pocket) for a 1.29 ERA, which is being very generous to the rest of Northwest League hitters.
As for the results themselves. An entire book could be written on this specific Volcanoes super team (and perhaps someday there will be), but for the sake of this article, we use the premise that the amount of runs a team scores, compared with the amount of runs a team yields, is a solid indicator for that team’s projected record. We use the ratio from Bill James, called the Pythagorean Expectation.
Yes, there are outliers with this ratio. The 2018 Seattle Mariners finished with 89 wins and yet allowed more runs than they scored, but the premise is sound.
If the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes score more in a game than the Hillsboro Hops, the Volcanoes win that game. If the Volcanoes score more runs than they yield to their opponents throughout an entire season, the Volcanoes have a strong shot a winning record.
The greater the gap between runs scored and runs allowed, the better the chance the Volcanoes are a playoff team.
When running the model, the Volcanoes super team performed off the charts. They completely lived up to their alternative universe name of a super team. Even the Marvel Avengers would tip their caps.
2018 Northwest League | League Batting
- Salem-Keizer Volcanoes super team: 451 runs scored
- Boise Hawks: 368 runs scored
- Spoke Indians: 364 runs scored
- Everett AquaSox: 358 runs scored
- Hillsboro Hops: 349 runs scored
- Tri-City Dust Devils: 340 runs scored
- Vancouver Canadians: 300 runs scored
- Eugene Emeralds: 278 runs scored
2018 Northwest League | League Pitching
- Salem-Keizer Volcanoes super team: 136 runs allowed
- Hillsboro Hops: 286 runs allowed
- Vancouver Canadians: 299 runs allowed
- Spokane Indians: 331 runs allowed
- Everett AquaSox: 339 runs allowed
- Tri-City Dust Devils: 347 runs allowed
- Eugene Emeralds: 367 runs allowed
- Boise Hawks: 396 runs allowed
So just how does the Volcanoes super team's stunning + 315 runs scored number translate into wins and losses against the rest of the 2018 Northwest League? Hold on to your seats:
The Salem-Keizer Volcanoes super team would be 70 – 6 against the rest of the 2018 Northwest League.
Of course, in alternative universes where you extrapolate players from different years playing together and that they played a full season without injuries, it always rightfully leaves some to say, “yeh, but…” While on the surface, making the case this team would have 70 wins certainly is attention-grabbing, one most also concede: It wasn’t an accident all these players directly helped win three World Series and a National League Wild Card all in this decade. It also makes you appreciate being able to see some future San Francisco Giants starters playing on the 2019 playoff-bound Volcanoes team.
Maybe, someday, some 2019 Volcanoes will be part of a future super team discussion.
Justin Lacche is President (Emeritus) of the Volcanoes. A professional cricket player, Lacche has 3,000+ career runs in 15 seasons, winning two cricket championships.
