Tropical Storm Nestor is born: Winds picking up as tropical system makes North Florida approach

1:42 p.m. update

It’s official — a weather system in the Gulf of Mexico forecast to bedevil North Florida this weekend has formed into Tropical Storm Nestor.

Nestor, a disorganized storm with top sustained winds of 60 mph, is trekking northeast across the Gulf of Mexico, on a probable collision course with the Panhandle coastline.

The storm could bring winds around 40 mph, 2-4 inches of rain and localized power outages to Tallahassee, but widespread damage isn't expected. However, forecasters are warning coastal residents about the potential for life-threatening storm surge.

The entire Big Bend, including Leon and surrounding counties, and the Panhandle are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning is in effect from just west of Apalachicola to the Tampa Bay area, which could see inundation of 3 to 5 feet, including high tide.

Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches across the Big Bend are expected, though some areas could see as much as 4 to 6 inches, forecasters said.

The storm is expected to make its way from the central Gulf coast tonight and move inland Saturday, shedding its tropical characteristics as heads across South Georgia and the Carolinas, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Nestor is expected to strengthen today before making landfall and losing some of its steam.

The storm, moving northeast at 22 mph, is expected to move quickly out of the Big Bend and race offshore into the Atlantic Ocean by Sunday night.

11 a.m. update

The winds have picked up from a disorganized tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico forecast to hit the North Florida coastline tonight.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami clocked Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 with top sustained winds near 60 mph, though it had no discernible eye. The storm could get better organized and strengthen before making landfall Friday night or Saturday morning.

In Tallahassee, the system could bring heavy rain, winds of 30-40 mph and isolated tornadoes. The entire Big Bend, including Leon and surrounding counties, and the Panhandle remain under a tropical storm warning.

A storm surge warning remains in effect from just west of Apalachicola to the Tampa Bay area, which could see inundation of 3 to 5 feet, including high tide.

Franklin County Emergency Management officials are asking people to get prepared now. Impacts from the storm will be greatest at the coast.

"We are asking that all citizens who live along the coastline or are prone to surge or flooding to take precautionary measures," the office said on its Facebook page.

Check back with Tallahassee.com for more on the tropics.

More:What's open or closed, happening or canceled for Friday and Saturday?

Morning update

A tropical disturbance racing across the Gulf of Mexico isn't expected to bring widespread damage to Tallahassee when it arrives sometime after midnight.

But what may strengthen into Tropical Storm Nestor later today could bring life-threatening storm surge to the coast just south of town.

And while coastal areas could see maximum sustained winds approaching 50 mph, winds will top out in Tallahassee around 30 mph, with higher gusts, said Federico Di Catarina, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

WeatherTiger forecast:A Tropical Storm Nestor could pack 50 mph winds, bring 5 inches of rain to Florida

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"Our biggest impacts are probably going to be wind and things like localized power outages and fallen trees," he said. "We're also going to have the possibility for tornadoes and localized flooding."

The system is expected to make landfall in Bay and Gulf counties around sunrise Saturday, he said. The Panhandle and the Big Bend coast could see tropical-storm force winds starting tonight, with inland impacts overnight.

In Tallahassee, winds will start to pick up around 2 a.m., Di Catarina said. The strongest winds are expected closer to dawn.

The entire Big Bend, including Leon and surrounding counties, and the Florida Panhandle are under a tropical storm warning. That means tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

A storm surge warning is in effect from just west of Apalachicola to the Tampa area, which could see inundation of 3 to 5 feet above ground level,  said the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Peak water levels from coastal inundation are expected around high tide in the pre-dawn hours through mid-morning Saturday, according to the Weather Service in Tallahassee.

As of 5 a.m., the system had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving northeast near 14 mph. The Hurricane Center said its forward speed will increase over the next two days as it potentially moves over South Georgia and the Carolinas.

The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm today, followed by slow strengthening, the Hurricane Center said. Di Catarina said people should monitor the storm and heed advice from local officials regardless of whether it gets a name.

"The impacts are going to be the same," he said.

Sandbags available

To assist residents with severe weather preparations, the City will open two sandbag locations starting at 9 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 18.

Bags and sand will be available at James Messer Park South, located at 2830 Jackson Bluff Road (on the south side of Jackson Bluff Road between Appleyard Drive and Dupree Street), and at the old Northwood Mall, located at 1940 North Monroe Street (near the entrance off North Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd.). These sites will be open until the inclement weather has passed and it is determined there is no longer a need.

Check back with Tallahassee.com for more on the tropics.

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.