Isaias watch: Tallahassee in the cone of uncertainty for potential tropical cyclone
Jeff BurlewA weather disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, threatening South Florida by the weekend before potentially affecting the Tallahassee area.
The system, known now as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, is forecast to become Isaias, the ninth named storm of the hurricane season, later today.
The latest five-day forecast track shifted the storm's center line to the east. It shows a tropical storm potentially skirting the northern coast of Cuba before moving into the Gulf of Mexico and up Florida's west coast.
Depending on its forward speed, it could approach North Florida by Monday morning. However, there's great uncertainty about the ultimate intensity and path of the storm, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week," the Hurricane Center said. "This system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida by the end of the week."
A tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico, portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti and numerous smaller Caribbean islands. The warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.
At 5 a.m. this morning, the disturbance was located about 385 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It had top sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west-northwest at 23 mph.
"On the forecast track, the center will move through the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday," the Hurricane Center said.
Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.
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