Tallahassee MSA economy falls from top per capita spot

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area no longer has the fastest growing economy per capita in the state, a report released last week from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates. 

The Tallahassee MSA per capita ranked second behind Palm Bay/Melbourne and Titusville MSA. 

The BEA updated is preliminary 2016 statistics, which also showed Tallahassee MSA's real GDP growth rate at 4.3 percent. The federal agency later revised the numbers to a 2.1 percent GDP growth rate for 2017. 

Earlier this year, local government, economic and business leaders touted Tallahassee MSA's milestone. The revised report dropped the Tallahassee MSA's GDP rate to the fifth spot and tied with the Port St. Lucie MSA among Florida's 22 MSAs.

"After (the BEA) has time to revise it and study it in detail, they may revise those numbers and that’s what we have here,” said Al Latimer, director of the Tallahassee-Leon County Office of Economic Vitality.

"If you achieve a No. 1 in anything, I don’t think there's anything wrong with celebrating a milestone,” Latimer said. "That was the best data we had at the time. We were No. 1 and we reported that based on a credible reliable source. It wasn’t premature or jumping the gun."

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Despite the ranking slip, Latimer stressed the overall growth for the Tallahassee MSA as a more complete look at the local economy. Last year, he said, the Tallahassee MSA real GDP rate for 2017 is 3.1 percent, representing $13.8 billion — up from the 2016 level of $13.4 billion.  

Several economic indicators show Tallahassee continues to have a strong economy. For example, the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity said Leon County's unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in August.  

Last week, CareerSource Capital Region reported the top five job listings for the capital region are registered nurses, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, computer systems analysts, retail salespersons and first-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers. 

However, the Tallahassee Economic Index, which examines local economic indicators, said the local economy "slowed again in July."

"Some of our weightier categories continued a weaker trend with initial claims, new construction permits, and single-family median sales price all posting sub-par results,” said Lance Mitchell, director of research at the Tallahassee Economic Index.

But Jerry Parrish, chief economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation, said the federal tax bill has helped businesses' confidence, and they are investing and hiring more people.   

Florida's year-over-year rate shows a 2.6 percent job growth rate, compared to the U.S. rate of 1.6 percent, Parrish said. Florida’s job growth rate is not only higher than the U.S. rate he said, but the state's job growth also has been accelerating.

When asked to speak to the bureau's credibility and whether communities should be cautious about touting numbers, Parrish said BEA is "very credible."

"But all preliminary numbers from all sources are subject to revision," Parrish said. "I would just note that they are preliminary numbers if I was speaking for, or about, a community."

Contact TaMaryn Waters at tlwaters@tallahassee.com or follow @TaMarynWaters on Twitter. 

Tallahassee MSA Real GDP Growth Rates

2002 — 1.3%

2003 — 2.4%

2004 — 3.1%

2005 — 0.2%

2006 — 0.7%

2007 — 4.3%

2008 — -2.5%

2009 — -2.9%

2010 — -1.3%

2011 — -1.8%

2012 — 1.6%

2013 — -0.5%

2014 — -0.2%

2015 — 0.4%

2016 — 2.1%

2017 — 3.1%

Source: Florida Chamber Foundation