Nashville doubles down on apartments as home prices swell

Sandy Mazza
The Tennessean

It’s no surprise to anyone who’s walked the streets of Nashville for any length of time that new apartment complexes and row homes are seemingly everywhere.

Now, new research shows that investors have gotten even more bullish on multifamily housing in Nashville.

In the first quarter of 2019, construction permits for new duplexes, town homes, condominiums, apartments and triplexes jumped 71.9% over that period last year, from 1,067 to 1,834. 

Meanwhile, the number of unsold single-family homes sitting on the market ballooned and prices dipped as demand shifted. Construction permits for new single-family homes also dropped slightly.

In the first quarter of 2019, construction permits for new duplexes, town homes, condominiums, apartments and triplexes jumped 71.9% over that period last year.

The research is published in a comprehensive Middle Tennessee State University analysis of the state's housing market from January through March. 

"Demand for housing is placed on the multifamily side," said Murat Arik, director of MTSU's business and economic research center. "It could be because of high prices of single-family homes, or they may be shifting pace to living in apartments."

Multifamily housing construction isn't just booming in Nashville. It's driving construction activity statewide, according to the report.

New multifamily permits grew 107.4% statewide in the first quarter, over last year. Single-family home permits dropped 9.4%.

Home prices still increasing

The median price of a single-family home in the Greater Nashville metropolitan area dropped slightly to $240,000 in the first quarter, from $250,000 in mid-2018, according to listed and non-listed deed sales reviewed by property data firm Attom Data Solutions.

The Nashville metropolitan area includes Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford and 12 other surrounding counties.

Meanwhile, the median price of condominium units was $80,000 less than single-family homes, according to listed sales reported by Greater Nashville Realtors. 

Nashville-area home prices have jumped 85% since their lowest post-recession point in 2011, according to Attom Data Solutions. 

This unprecedented growth peaked in mid-2017 as new companies flocked to the area and population boomed at a rate of roughly 100 new residents a day

Chloe Evans gives a tour of a penthouse under construction at the Element Music Row high-rise apartment building Dec. 20, 2015.

Prices continue to increase, year over year, but at a slower rate than in the past few years when Nashville saw double-digit growth.

The median price of homes sold grew 5.3% — about equal to the national rate — in the first quarter of 2019, compared with that period in 2018. 

Strong economy could boost housing

The slowed demand for homes caused inventory to balloon 7.2% in the first quarter in Nashville over the previous quarter. Year over year, Nashville's unsold housing inventory jumped 31.4%.

The resulting price decreases, and another anticipated mortgage rate decrease, could help turn the tide back to favor single-family homes. 

In contrast to Nashville, Knoxville and Memphis saw single-digit housing inventory declines as buyers picked up a greater percentage of houses, according to the MTSU study. 

Though Nashville's heated housing market has cooled a bit, economic conditions remain strong enough to support continued growth. 

Statewide, unemployment claims decreased 9% and total nonfarm employment grew 1.8% in the first quarter. Mortgage delinquencies declined and foreclosure rates are low, according to the MTSU report.

The addition of major new Nashville corporate offices, including Amazon, AllianceBernstein, EY and Smile Direct Club, are poised to increase demand for high-end housing over the next few years.

"The overall economic fundamentals — job growth, employment — is still growing," Arik said. "This is a vibrant economic region that will attract people looking for opportunities. But, when people come here, they will face some challenges unless we are paying them good money."

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Reach Sandy Mazza at smazza@tennessean.com or 615-726-5962 and on Twitter @SandyMazza.