Nashville's next mayor's race about to take shape as 2019 looms

It's the calm before the storm in the pursuit for Nashville's top job, and it might pick up sooner than later.

Several potential challengers to incumbent Nashville Mayor David Briley — elected to the office via special election seven months ago — indicated they're nearing decisions on whether they'll get in the August 2019 election. 

Tennessee state Rep. John Ray Clemmons, D-Nashville, is among those mulling a run and said he believes anyone entering the mayor's race would need to soon, likely before the end of this year. 

"We continue to hear a lot of concerns about the current administration from all sectors of the community," Clemmons said, stopping short of saying that means he'll announce his intentions this month. 

"Right now, I'm just listening to those who have serious concerns," he said. 

Briley vulnerable after an eventful first year?

Briley, Metro's former vice mayor, was thrust into office in March after former Mayor Megan Barry resigned. He was elected two months later to finish Barry's term. He now faces yet another election for a full four-year term. 

Although he has the advantage of incumbency, which includes a vast fundraising network from the city's power base, some see Briley as vulnerable because of a challenging first nine months in office.

Nashville real estate executive Bill Freeman, who ran unsuccessfully for mayor in 2015 after dropping nearly $4 million of personal money into his campaign, said he would likely make a decision over the next month or so about another mayoral campaign.

"It's something that we're considering and researching, and we'll make a decision after the first of the year," said Freeman, co-founder of the real estate company Freeman Webb Company, which purchased the alt-weekly Nashville Scene this year.

No sitting mayor of Nashville's Metro government has ever lost re-election, but unlike those others, Briley hasn't served a full year, much less a full term.

Election fatigue from last year hasn't stopped stopped speculation

In the 2015 mayoral election won by Barry, each of the seven candidates had entered by the end of January with Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry joining last.

But this year, the possible contenders must take into account voter fatigue as they map out their timing. Nashville had six elections last year including runoffs, two of which were prompted by Barry's resignation.

More:Nashville Mayor David Briley wins special mayoral race, avoiding runoff

More:Interactive map: How David Briley won the Nashville mayor's race and avoided a runoff

At-large Councilwoman Erica Gilmore, who finished a distant third in the May special election with 5.6 percent of the vote, is considering running again. But it would mean she could not seek a second term for her at-large council seat, which will also be up for grabs in August.

"I plan to take a couple of weeks to debate the matter with my family before making a final decision on my plans for 2019," Gilmore said. "In the meantime, I am focused on fighting for working families and strengthening Nashville communities by championing bold and progressive solutions to remedy our city's toughest challenges."

Nashville community activist and organizer jeff obafemi carr, the sixth-place finisher in the special election won by Briley, is exploring another run as well.

"The thought of having more than 22 days to build a successful and inclusive campaign is intriguing and exciting," carr said, adding that he plans to make a decision after Jan. 1 "The people of Nashville deserve to know their options far enough in advance to make a solid and informed choice."

Briley to hold first fundraiser Wednesday

Briley won the May special election with 54.4 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff by winning with a majority.

He's continued the socially liberal, business-friendly approach of his predecessor, but his short tenure has had ups and downs. Briley won Metro Council approval of a $275 million Major League Soccer stadium after a contentious fight and last month welcomed Amazon's plans for a new downtown Nashville hub. 

Amazon hub:The inside story of Nashville's surprise Amazon win

Briley re-election effort:Nashville Mayor David Briley kicks off re-election fundraising with help from former top aide

But he's attracted criticism from labor unions and others for choosing not to raise property taxes this year, preventing Metro from delivering on promised cost-of-living pay adjustments to city employees. A tight budget is expected this spring as well.

A referendum on funding a $5.4 billion transit plan — pushed by Briley after it was introduced by Barry — lost soundly at the polls. He also raised objections about a new community oversight board over police that Nashville voters passed overwhelmingly despite his reservations. 

Briley is kicking off his re-election fundraising with an event Wednesday co-hosted by longtime mayor's office aide Rich Riebeling, who left city government in October.

"Nashville is enjoying a great run of economic prosperity," Briley said in a statement about his re-election effort. "The Amazon news is the latest evidence of that. But not everyone has been able to ride the wave. We can do more to bring everyone along and create equity for all, and I believe I’m the best person to lead our great city in that critical work.”

John Cooper mum about plans

For months, the most mayoral buzz has centered on what At-large Councilman John Cooper will do.

Cooper, an outspoken critic of several major Briley and Barry initiatives including transit plan and MLS stadium, has attracted a following for his willingness to challenge Metro's status quo. He's also ticked off many in Metro's establishment in the process.

The younger brother of U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Nashville, Cooper holds a powerful last name in Nashville and, like Freeman, is well-positioned to raise money for a race. Most believe it could cost $1.5 million to $2 million to compete in the election.

Cooper wouldn't say when asked when he'll have a decision.

"There's a lot to be done in Nashville, and the council is meeting every other Tuesday," Cooper said. "I've got nothing to say."

James Shaw Jr. could shake up race

The most intriguing potential candidate might be James Shaw Jr., the hero from the Antioch Waffle House shooting in April, who last month became the latest to enter the speculative field when he tweeted "A better people, a better culture, a better Nashville" — with the hashtag "#August2019."

Shaw, who will turn 30 later this month, thus meeting the age requirement to serve as mayor, has taken on near-celebrity status since entering the public spotlight. He even saved the Nashville Christmas Parade as the substitute grand marshal after music star Kid Rock got the boot.

Neither Shaw nor a Shaw's publicist returned messages seeking comment on his plans.

Davidson County Sheriff Daron Hall, whose name is always tossed around as a possible candidate every time there's a mayoral race, said he's focused on his job as sheriff for now but that he's been asked to run and isn't ready to rule it out.

"I've got a lot going in the sheriff's office, and as far as I'm concerned, I have a decent relationship with the mayor's office, and that's important. It hasn't always been that way," he said. 

"I think the question some voters may have is he a backup quarterback," Hall said of Briley. "And the reality of that analogy is some backups turn out to be hall of fame players. That's where I think the city is, deciding whether this person who was thrust into the position, is best for the long haul."

Barry won't run to reclaim office

Several people have said they won't run.

That includes Renata Soto, co-founder of Conexion Americas, who on Friday announced plans to depart the immigrant nonprofit she started.

More:Renata Soto to leave Conexión Américas

At-large Councilman Bob Mendes has said he's not running as well. The same goes for Tennessee Rep. Harold Love, Jr., D-Nashville, a prominent African-American leader, who like Gilmore and carr, lost in this year's special election. Love said he's focused on his work in the state legislature.

And what about Barry? 

Barry, who despite her plea deal of felony theft related to her two-year affair with her former police bodyguard, has no legal barriers from running for mayor again herself.

More:Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, conservative commentator spar over 'white privilege' on TV show

Since her resignation, Barry has steadily ramped up her public appearances, maintained a prolific social media presence and started to regularly speak at functions to raise awareness about the nation's opioid crisis.

The activity has raised speculation about her political future, but she told The Tennessean she will not be running for mayor. 

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.