Nashville's explosive growth shows signs of slowing

Mike Reicher
The Tennessean

The Nashville metro area's population boom is showing another sign of tapering off.

The region grew by an average of 83 people a day between July 2017 and July 2018 — down from 94 the year before, according to Census population estimates released on Wednesday.

It was the second consecutive year under the 100-a-day mark that became synonymous with the area's rapid rise. (A Census estimate using a different method pegged the daily growth at above 100 in 2017, but these latest figures are considered a more accurate measure).

Cranes continue to dominate the Nashville skyline as major construction projects continue across the city on March 20, 2019.

However much the growth is slowing, it might not feel that way. The region continues to enjoy all-time-high tourism and record-low unemployment. Also, the growing pains continue to reverberate: heavier traffic, more expensive housing, and displacement of low-income residents. 

“If you polled most communities that we’re slowing down, I don’t think they’d believe you,” said Max Baker, director of research and analytics at the Greater Nashville Regional Council. 

Baker said that the growth was spread unevenly across the region, and urban areas were seeing the largest influx. People are moving to areas with better schools, parks and community facilities, he said. 

Wilson County rose to be the fastest-growing county in the state, with a 3.4 percent increase. It overtook Williamson County, which last year was the 35th fastest-growing U.S. county with 10,000 or more residents. Wilson County this year was the 57th-fastest.

Davidson County grew from 689,006 to 692,587 people over the year, at a rate of less than 1%. 

The 14-county Nashville metro area includes Franklin and Murfreesboro, but not Clarksville. Montgomery County, home to Clarksville, was the second-fastest growing county in the state.

Not as many people moved into the region

Most of the regional slowdown can be pinned on the ebbing of transplants. Total population estimates include births, deaths, and net migration, or the number of people moving here minus the number moving out.

The Nashville metro area saw a 74% jump in annual migration from 2011 to 2013, but in 2016 it began to slow, and the annual migration growth has dropped by 16% since.

That easing has impacted the market for real estate, experts say. Janet Miller, the Nashville CEO of Colliers International, said the cooling off in the national economy could mean fewer people moving to Nashville. 

"People are still finding it attractive to move here, but maybe it’s a more measured number," said Miller. "I think it’s not a bad thing to have a little bit of a breather.”

The greater metro area’s housing market has experienced rapid growth since the Great Recession. Housing prices jumped 92 percent from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2018, when they averaged $250,000, according to property-data firm Attom Data Solutions.

But the Nashville area has fallen from the country’s third fastest-growing housing market to the 14th fastest since mid-2017, Zillow data shows. 

Nashville is still one of the fastest-growing large metros in nation

Despite the apparent slowdown, Nashville grew faster than most large metro areas last year. The region grew by 30,377 people to 1,930,961, at a rate of 1.6%. That growth rate landed the region in 11th place on the ranking of the nation's 53 metro areas with populations of 1 million or more. Austin, Texas, was the fastest-growing large metro area, at a rate of 2.5 percent.

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Tennessean reporter Sandy Mazza contributed to this report.

Reach Mike Reicher at mreicher@tennessean.com or 615-259-8228 and on Twitter @mreicher.