In Nashville, fewer coronavirus infections and a glimmer of hope

Brett Kelman
Nashville Tennessean

About a month after closing bars and mandating masks, Nashville officials say the city has made promising but fragile progress against the spread of coronavirus, offering a rare sign of hope in a state where the pandemic is otherwise growing.

The average number of new daily infections in Nashville has dropped 28% percent in just the past week. Hospitalizations, which climbed throughout much of July, have begun to flatten. Fatalities remain low.

“The steps we took a month ago, mandating masks, going to a modified Phase Two and closing bars, are working,” said Dr. Alex Jahangir, head of the Nashville coronavirus task force, on Tuesday. “We are seeing our metrics improve, but we are not out of the woods yet. And most of you are doing your part.”

Dr. Michael Caldwell, Director of the Metro Public Health Department, reminds people to wear masks on Lower Broadway in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, July 31, 2020.

Nashville made this progress despite a worsening statewide outbreak and an impasse on Lower Broadway, the heart of the city’s entertainment district, where unmasked crowds gather in brazen defiance of public health orders. City officials have become increasingly desperate to rein in Broadway but have largely failed to do so.

CORONAVIRUS:Nashville officials signal intent to prosecute organizers of Fashion House party

Mayor John Cooper said Tuesday the city may soon try "different strategies” on Broadway and conceded that closing the street altogether was a possibility. Cooper suggested Nashville is making progress, despite defiance on Broadway, because those crowds are largely composed of tourists.

“The fact is that a lot of people on Lower Broadway may be testing positive and not showing up in our numbers. They don’t live here …” Cooper said. “We don’t want COVID-19 to show up in these folks’ home communities either.”

As of Tuesday, Nashville had recorded 21,879 residents with coronavirus, including about 3,500 active infections, 700 total hospitalizations and 199 deaths. Average daily infections peaked in July at more than 400 and have since fallen to about 250. More than 220 people were actively hospitalized two weeks ago, but that count has since fallen to 170. Test positivity rates, as calculated by the city, have fallen to their lowest point since June.

The slowing of infections in Nashville is a likely result of the mandating masks on June 28 and closing bars on July 3. The city followed up two weeks later by ordering restaurants to shut their doors at 10 p.m. in an effort to limit restaurants that essentially became bars after dark.

Cooper said these decisions were recently “validated” by the White House coronavirus task force, which recommended similar precautions statewide. Gov. Bill Lee gave county mayors the authority to require masks but hasn't issued a statewide mandate and rejected a White House recommendation to close bars.

Although the virus is slowing in Nashville, the story is not the same statewide. Tennessee infections and deaths increased throughout most of July, and average hospitalizations reached record levels just last week. Experts warn the virus is moving away from major cities like Nashville and Memphis and into smaller cities and rural areas that have less hospitals and public health resources to combat an outbreak.

Brett Kelman is the health care reporter for The Tennessean. He can be reached at 615-259-8287 or at brett.kelman@tennessean.com. Follow him on Twitter at @brettkelman.