Pro-Europe Labour backbenchers are fighting to keep the pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to reconsider his opposition to membership of the European Economic Area, as new polling for the People’s Vote campaign confirms majority support for a vote on the Brexit deal.
The poll, by Opinium, finds a small overall majority of 53% in favour of a vote on the deal, with 31% opposed.
But among Labour voters the majority is much bigger, 69% to 18%, and among the so-called Corbynista generation of under-35s, 65% want a second vote to 22% opposed. The pattern is broadly similar in leave and remain voting areas across the UK.
Chuka Umunna, a leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said it was clear that the Brexit deal described by the leave campaign will not be on the table.
“The Brexit that people were promised is very different to the one they will get. They were told we could get all the economic benefits of the EU after we left, but that is patently not the case as new facts emerge every week.
“650 MPs alone should not determine the destinies of 65 million people on such a big issue.”
Quick GuideWhat are Brexit options now? Four scenarios
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Staying in the single market and customs union
The UK could sign up to all the EU’s rules and regulations, staying in the single market – which provides free movement of goods, services and people – and the customs union, in which EU members agree tariffs on external states. Freedom of movement would continue and the UK would keep paying into the Brussels pot. We would continue to have unfettered access to EU trade, but the pledge to “take back control” of laws, borders and money would not have been fulfilled. This is an unlikely outcome and one that may be possible only by reversing the Brexit decision, after a second referendum or election.
The Norway model
Britain could follow Norway, which is in the single market, is subject to freedom of movement rules and pays a fee to Brussels – but is outside the customs union. That combination would tie Britain to EU regulations but allow it to sign trade deals of its own. A “Norway-minus” deal is more likely. That would see the UK leave the single market and customs union and end free movement of people. But Britain would align its rules and regulations with Brussels, hoping this would allow a greater degree of market access. The UK would still be subject to EU rules.
The Canada deal
A comprehensive trade deal like the one handed to Canada would help British traders, as it would lower or eliminate tariffs. But there would be little on offer for the UK services industry. It is a bad outcome for financial services. Such a deal would leave Britain free to diverge from EU rules and regulations but that in turn would lead to border checks and the rise of other “non-tariff barriers” to trade. It would leave Britain free to forge new trade deals with other nations. Many in Brussels see this as a likely outcome, based on Theresa May’s direction so far.
No deal
Britain leaves with no trade deal, meaning that all trade is governed by World Trade Organization rules. Tariffs would be high, queues at the border long and the Irish border issue severe. In the short term, British aircraft might be unable to fly to some European destinations. The UK would quickly need to establish bilateral agreements to deal with the consequences, but the country would be free to take whatever future direction it wishes. It may need to deregulate to attract international business – a very different future and a lot of disruption.
A similar poll by the Labour organisation Left Foot Forward, conducted by BMG in the first few days of May, was published on Wednesday. It found support for a second vote if there was no deal running at 53% to 47% if undecided voters were excluded.
Gareth Thomas, who successfully moved a backbench bill for a people’s vote with Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru support earlier this week, said: “Whether you think Brexit is a good deal or a bad deal, there’s no denying it’s a big deal … the people of this country must decide whether or not the Brexit on offer is the right path.”
The NUS vice-president for FE, Emily Chapman, who backs the student-led For our Future’s Sake, said the vast majority of students and younger people are opposed to Brexit.
“We are the ones who will have to live with the consequences of Brexit for the longest if we leave the EU, so we must be given a say on what our future should be.”
Umunna is one of a group of backbenchers who are pushing Corbyn to adopt EEA membership.
After the Lords rebellion on Tuesday, when 83 Labour peers rebelled against party instructions to abstain on an amendment committing the government to membership of the EEA, MPs will have a vote when the EU Withdrawal bill returns to the Commons on 21 May.
Peers had been whipped to abstain on the bill, and Corbyn’s spokesperson said on Wednesday there would be no change in the party’s position.
“We will be pressing the case in the Commons ... for a new relationship with the EU which is based on a new relationship with the single market that retains the benefits.”
But some MPs believe there is a chance of defeating the government and are angry that Labour might duck the opportunity.
Membership of the EEA is also backed by the TUC because it would represent the closest relationship with the single market without being a full member. It does not cover either agriculture or fisheries, but it does underpin EU standards and rights.
On Thursday Claire Hanna, Brexit spokesperson for the SDLP – Labour’s sister party in Northern Ireland – appealed to Labour MPs to back the EEA as a way of resolving the impasse over the border between the north and south of the island.
“A hard border can’t be prevented by clever words in a treaty text or by imagined technological innovations. It will only be prevented if we retain full access and full alignment with the single market and customs union,” she said.
“No other solution is possible ... the SDLP is urging Labour to use this opportunity to act in all of our interests by remaining in the EEA.”
However, like the single market, the EEA restricts state aid to an extent and imposes EU competition rules. In a speech in Glasgow on Friday, Corbyn will pledge to build three new Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessels in British shipyards. The government is preparing to put the contract, worth an estimated £1bn, out to international tender. It could be argued that Corbyn’s pledge is not compatible with membership of the EEA.
Opinium polled 2005 people across the UK on 4-5 May.