Tory moderates are beginning to coalesce around candidates they believe could defeat Dominic Raab, rather than Boris Johnson, as several MPs told the Guardian they considered the former Brexit secretary the bigger threat.
The moves against Raab from moderates are likely to also benefit Johnson and the environment secretary, Michael Gove, who Tory backbenchers believe is gaining momentum over his cabinet rival Jeremy Hunt.
On Friday the former immigration minister Mark Harper became the 12th MP to enter the race to succeed Theresa May, setting out his stall as someone who had not served in May’s government and could offer “fresh thinking”.
Six MPs have endorsed Harper so far, putting him ahead of other outsiders including James Cleverly, Esther McVey, Kit Malthouse and Rory Stewart. However, more than half the parliamentary party is yet to declare for a candidate.
Quick GuideTory leadership contenders
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Jeremy Hunt
His style is notably technocratic, with few rhetorical flourishes and an emphasis on his consensual approach and long record as a minister, notably during more than five years as health secretary, a traditional graveyard of ministerial careers. Hunt’s attempts to talk up a backstory as an 'underestimated' entrepreneur can fall flat given he is also the son of an admiral and was head boy at Charterhouse.
Overall, Hunt’s approach can seem uninspiring and hard to pin down in terms of core beliefs, hence the 'Theresa in trousers' nickname among some Tory MPs – one that is more catchy than accurate (since May herself often wears trousers).
In the final round of MP voting Hunt edged out Michael Gove, 77 votes to 75.
Boris Johnson
Johnson’s progress to Downing Street appeared unstoppable even before an overwhelming victory in the first round of voting among MPs. Most of his colleagues believe it is now all but inevitable that he will be Britain’s next prime minister.
His well-disciplined campaign team will continue with their strategy of subjecting him to minimal media exposure, though once the field is narrowed down to two, the final pair will appear in more than a dozen head-to-head hustings for Tory members. The team’s main aim is simply to keep heads down and avoid Johnson creating headlines for the wrong reasons. It may not have worked.
Johnson came first in the final round of MP voting with 160 votes.
MPs told the Guardian that Johnson and Gove were having more success at winning over moderates, who have largely accepted that a Brexiter is likely to be the members’ favourite so parliamentary efforts are best directed in keeping more radical candidates off the final ballot.
“MPs are not backing the lowest common denominator here,” one MP said. “That is good news for Boris and not good news for Raab. He’s not been impressive as a front person.”
Multiple MPs said Johnson had been emphasising his more liberal credentials on issues other than Brexit. “Rightwing on Brexit, to the left of the party on other things – that’s probably where the country is,” the MP said. “The nation is not demanding massive tax cuts.”
“Very senior moderate ministers are now fully behind Stop Raab – that is what they think is the real problem,” another MP, a member of the One Nation group, said. “With Raab and a moderate in the final two, it would be a disastrous gamble”
Johnson, who remains a divisive figure in the party, is expected to rachet up his campaign next week but so far he has kept his tactics private. “If I hadn’t declared, I could have seen him five times already,” one new intake MP said.
“He’s speaking to MPs. He’s thinking about tactics. To be honest, that’s what he should be doing,” another said. “He knows people will come and see him in his office if he asks.”
Johnson remains deeply unpopular in Scotland and was reportedly blocked from attending the party’s conference by its leader, Ruth Davidson. Moderate candidates including Matt Hancock are expending serious efforts to woo the 13-strong Scottish Conservatives.
The health secretary has been backed by two of their number – Paul Masterton and the prime minister’s parliamentary private secretary Andrew Bowie – and spent his Thursday visiting Stirling, Angus, Aberdeen, Kinross and Edinburgh.
Rory Stewart, the breakout outsider in the contest who has spent his entire campaign on the road filming shaky handheld videos with members of the public, has also talked up his unionist credentials, proposing a secretary of state for the union and spending Friday in the Scottish capital.
But his social media tour of the UK has not endeared him to many MPs thus far. “This stuff is not going to make people vote for him,” one moderate said. “It might be different if he was now making a hard-hitting speech every day on health, education and the economy. Colleagues might think: ‘Wow, OK, this guy actually does have some pretty interesting answers.’ But he’s annoyed the right of the party, and you can’t actually lead the party having done that.”
MPs have also been keeping a close eye on the tactics that candidates have used to announce their declarations of support.
Gove is currently the frontrunner with MPs, ahead of Johnson and Raab, followed by Hunt, Sajid Javid and Hancock.
Hunt began with one of the highest numbers of declarations but MPs have begun to notice his tally has not grown. “Everybody thinks, though no one knows for sure, that Hunt’s declared people may be all he has,” one MP said.
Others have been turned off by his apparent “flip-flopping” on a no-deal Brexit. “He alienated moderates by his bullish talk on no deal a few months ago; now he’s alienated Brexiters by calling it political suicide,” one Brexit-voting MP said. “It just proves he doesn’t really believe what he was saying when he was trying to present himself as a ‘born-again’ [Brexiter].”
In contrast, the tally for Javid, the home secretary, has been increasing steadily each day, though he is still in fifth place.
“I wouldn’t write him off,” one backbencher said. “But … what’s the point in Sajid? He’s not a true Brexiter or a young fresh face or a safe pair of hands. So why him?”
Other MPs are waiting to see the candidates’ position on another vital issue for many Conservatives: HS2. One MP said HS2 was proving a major issue with his colleagues whose constituencies were affected by the high-speed rail route and wanted firm pledges that it would be scrapped.
The MP said Raab was not planning to scrap the scheme and Johnson had “made all the right noises but then only promised a review”.
Several other candidates could still enter the race, which now has more participants than a football team. The defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt; the former international development secretary Priti Patel, and the hardline Brexiter Steve Baker are all still mulling over a run.