Theresa May's Commons statement on Brexit - Summary
As I said earlier, the key fact from Theresa May’s statement was a negative: the absence of any fresh Tory row about Brexit. (See 5.54pm.)
But there was some news in what May and Jeremy Corbyn had to say. Here are the key points.
May confirmed that the UK’s financial offer to the EU was conditional on the government getting a Brexit deal. She told MPs:
It is clear in the joint progress report, I have repeated it in my statement just now, that this offer is on the table in the context of us agreeing the partnership for the future, agreeing the next stage and agreeing the partnership for the future. If we don’t agree that partnership, then this offer is off the table.
But the Brexit deal she was talking about was the withdrawal agreement. This will refer in general terms to a future trade deal, but it won’t actually be the trade deal. May also also said the UK’s final “Brexit bill” payment would be worth between £35bn and £39bn.
May claimed the government still hoped to agree a trade deal by next autumn. Asked by the Tory MP Anna Soubry if the agreement on trade next autumn would be details of a new trade relationship, or just “heads of agreement”, May replied:
We have always said that we will be working to negotiate our full agreement in terms of the future relationship that we have with the European Union. Of course, legally it won’t be possible for them to sign up to that agreement until after we have left the European Union and we’ve become a third county. While we are in the EU, it’s not possible to [be] a signatory of that agreement. But the pieces of work that will now go forward will be the details of the implementation period, the details of the withdrawal agreement, which will have to go through certain parliamentary processes in European member states ... and also the future relationship that we will have in trade terms and security terms with the European Union.
But the EU does not expect to agree a proper trade deal by the end of next year. It just envisages a “political declaration” covering trade. (See 11.08am.)
May said the transition deal arrangements may not be agreed until March. In response to a question from the Tory Jeremy Lefroy about how long it would take, she said she expected work on the transition to start straight after the EU summit this week. She went on:
There are some details to be sorted out. I think the general expectation is that it will be agreed, we’ve said as early as possible in the new year, and Michel Barnier [the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator] has indicated that could be during the first quarter.
She indicated that the government was not dropping the amendment to the EU withdrawal bill fixing 29 March 2019 as Brexit day. Some Tories have criticised this on the grounds that it might stop the government seeking an extension if the negotiations over-run, and at one point it looked as if the goverment might drop the amendment, which will be put to a vote next week. But today May said:
We put that amendment down because we believe it’s important that we actually confirm and people have the confidence of knowing the date on which we will be leaving the European Union, which is March 29 2019.
She said last week’s deal was “good news” for people who voted leave and for people who voted remain. She said:
This is good news for people who voted Leave, who were worried we were so bogged down in tortuous negotiations it was never going to happen.
And it is good news for people who voted Remain, who were worried we were going to crash out without a deal.
She flatly denied a claim from Labour’s Chuka Umunna that civil servants have been told not to write memos about the impact of Brexit on sections of the economy. Umunna said:
Senior civil servants across Whitehall have reportedly been instructed from here on not to commit into writing any evaluation they make of the impact of Brexit on their industry sectors. Is this true and if so why the cover-up?
May simply replied: “No.”
Jeremy Corbyn suggested he would be happy to see the Brexit deadline slip if that proved necessary for the sake of the UK getting a better deal. (See 3.57pm.)
Theresa May's Commons statement on Brexit - Verdict
The Conservative party has decided collectively to postpone its next Brexit row until after Christmas. That is probably the most important takeaway from Theresa May’s marathon 105 minutes at the despatch box. With arch pro-Europeans and supposed mutineers like Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry (“supposed” because they don’t seem to have done much mutineering recently) praising May’s Brexit deal, alongside diehard Brexiters like Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Edward Leigh, it all felt very choreographed by the whips. But so what? That’s politics. For an afternoon at least, May has managed to unite her party. It was probably her happiest moment in the Commons since her first PMQs as party leader.
About the only Conservative who did express reservations was Philip Davies. (See 4.41pm.) But, in relative terms, even his question was supportive. According to Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler in the Sunday Times yesterday (paywall), last week Davies told colleagues at a dinner May should be replaced. “Philip Davies gave a speech about how crap Theresa May is,” they quoted one MP as saying. It wasn’t a speech he repeated this afternoon.
That doesn’t mean the underlying splits and tensions have disappeared. “This is a moment when sceptical MPs – frightened of seeming disloyal – are pretending to be happy,” the Thatcher biographer and Conservative party guru Charles Moore wrote in the Telegraph (paywall) on Saturday. “I know they are not – and the same applies to millions of people across the country.” But even the Tory party has a finite appetite for feuding and plotting. It feels as if any further rebelling has been postponed until the new year - which may help to explain, incidentally, why Number 10 now seems confident of winning the vote on the amendment putting Brexit day on the face of the EU withdrawal bill. (See 2.53pm and 5.17pm.)
May’s statement is over. John Bercow says she was on her feet for one hour and 45 minutes. That was quite a substantial commitment, he says, although Geoffrey Boycott (see 4.30pm) would not have thought that very long, he jokes.
Alberto Costa, a Conservative, says he wanted an assurance that his parents, who are Italian, would not lose their rights. He thanks May for honouring her promises on this.
Huw Merriman, a Conservative, asks when the eight-year period during which the European court of justice continues to adjudicate on certain cases relating to citizens’ rights starts. On the withdrawal date, or from the end of the transition?
Labour’s Heidi Alexander quotes a freight handler on the news last week saying you are either in the customs union or you are not. It is like being pregnant; you either are or you are not, he said. You either require customs checks or you do not, she says.
May says any regulatory “alignment” referred to in paragraph 49 (see 3.49pm) will not involve Northern Ireland being in the single market or the customs union.
Labour’s Stephen Kinnock says paragraph 96 of the deal makes it clear the financial settlement is conditional on the withdrawal agreement, not a future trade deal.
May says that is not her understanding. She says it is clear at the start of last week’s report that the payments are conditional on trade too. Paragraph 96 refers to the future relationship, she says. (See 11.08am for a bit more on this issue.)
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