Bold England are contenders for World Cup but don’t write off Ireland

Eddie Jones has been around long enough to appreciate that destiny lies at the end of a road blighted with potholes and misleading signposts. After his greatest triumph on Saturday he was gracious in victory, 11 months after he had been booed by some home supporters at Twickenham after Ireland had secured the Grand Slam there.

“They are a top team,” he said of Ireland, the world’s form country in 2018 who had been systematically taken apart by England. And they are. Just as England found last year after two years of barely uninterrupted success under Jones, nothing feeds the appetite of an ambitious team like a setback.

England showed in the opening minute in Dublin they had a hunger bordering on the ravenous. They were billed as the underdogs but they were like New Zealand in their attitude, taking on Ireland at their source of strength, the breakdown and the gain line, overwhelming the champions whose game plan burned in the heat of the onslaught.

Jones had picked a team not just to contain Ireland but to take them on and make them chase the game, one of their few weaknesses in recent years. He was advised to pick Mike Brown at full-back to counter Conor Murray’s box-kicking but his plan was to attack, not just defend. Elliot Daly was central to it, as he showed with the pass for England’s first try and in scoring the second from his own kick ahead, proof of the power of positive thinking.

While Jones was positive, picking a team to get England on the front foot, Joe Schmidt was more defensive. He moved Robbie Henshaw from centre to full-back, omitting Rob Kearney, who had excelled in the autumn, and picking Bundee Aki at 12. Jones had again harked on about Jonathan Sexton in the buildup and was Aki seen as a minder for the fly-half with England armed with the ball-carrying threat of Ben Te’o or Manu Tuilagi in the midfield and Billy Vunipola at No 8?

The selection reflected where the teams were coming from: Ireland had won 18 of their previous 19 Tests, while England had recovered from five straight defeats to win four out of five while still finding themselves, a narrow defeat to New Zealand followed by a disjointed performance against Japan that required the intervention of Owen Farrell.

As a pointer to the World Cup, it showed England will be contenders and that Ireland under Schmidt have not been deflected by adversity. Their previous defeat in the Six Nations had been in 2017 when Wales played in the manner of England last Saturday, controlling the gain line and meeting them head on; Ireland’s link at half-back ruptured and they lost by 13 points. A week later they denied England a grand slam in Dublin, the start of a 12-match winning run.

Warren Gatland was also bold in his Wales selection in Paris where, despite snow giving way to rain, he played Gareth Anscombe at fly-half rather than Dan Biggar. The conditions suited the latter more with his kicking game and ability in the air, but at a time when referees are not looking for an excuse to whistle, he appreciates the need to bring the outside backs into play and not wait for opponents to kick the ball to them.

It did not work last Friday with Wales trailing 16-0 at the interval after making a number of handling errors and some suspect calls in defence, prompting the call for Biggar just after the comeback had commenced. Wales are unlike Ireland in their ability to find a way back after a poor start; they trailed 16-0 at the break at Twickenham in 2016 and were within a try of winning the game in the final minute when George North’s pass to Rhys Webb on England’s 22 was ruled out for a foot in touch which Gatland disputed.

France tend to peak in the first period. A team who have spent years trying to find themselves have held on to win in only three of the last nine Tests in which they have held the lead at the interval. Jacques Brunel was positive in his selection for the opening match, promoting and picking a three-quarter line who had more polish than power, but does he, faced with the ball-carrying threat of Manu Tuilagi, Billy Vunipola and perhaps Courtney Lawes, withdraw Romain Ntamack and restore Mathieu Bastareaud?

It would be a defensive move but France will see themselves as the underdogs at Twickenham, a ground where they last won in the Six Nations 14 years ago. Ireland were the favourites going into last Saturday’s match, but while England accepted they were perceived as underdogs, they did not bill themselves as such and played with the assertiveness of a side who expected to win.

There has been little enough positive thinking at national level in France this decade. Furniture has constantly been rearranged but Brunel should not fear for his job in World Cup year, backed by the French Rugby Federation’s president Bernard Laporte, and he has enough big forwards to get at England’s supply line, as France did at Twickenham two years ago when the home bench proved the difference.

Schmidt did not look for excuses after the defeat to England, a result that should have the cold water effect on his players. He has injuries to contend with before Saturday’s match at Murrayfield and for all the talk the Six Nations is a self-contained tournament and not relevant to the World Cup, two of this weekend’s fixtures will be played again in Japan.

Ireland meet Scotland in Yokohama on 22 September and England face France at the same venue three weeks later. There is a sense coaches are looking ahead with the first round of the championship not a case of who dares sins.