Satellite pictures on Friday morning showed rain-bearing clouds hovering over the extreme South-East Bay of Bengal and travelling towards the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

The India Met Department (IMD) has set up a watch for signs of arrival of the South-West monsoon at this extreme eastern outpost in the country's territorial waters during the next two days.

A cyclonic circulation persists over the North Andaman Sea and the adjoining Malay Peninsula. Heavy rainfall is forecast variously over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Assam and Meghalaya over the next few days.

MYANMAR, SRI LANKA

As already reported, the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, the nearest national-level monitoring station, has its sights trained for signs of the monsoon’s onset over its South during the next four-five days.

Myanmar apart, Sri Lanka is the penultimate station where the monsoon strikes before finally reaching Kerala on the South-West coast of mainland India.

Sri Lanka has forecast above normal rainfall over most parts of the country during May-June-July, except a few districts to the West of the island nation.

Weak El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue through May-June-July, though with decreased intensity as time progresses, its Met Office said. Hence, global impacts are not anticipated.

Prediction skills are limited during May and June due to strong day-to-day atmospheric variability caused by the passage of lows and depressions or intra-seasonal systems such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) waves.

Meanwhile, the principal weather-setting systems live over India include a prevailing western disturbance over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir and a cyclonic circulation over South-West Rajasthan.

WEATHER SYSTEMS

Another trough lies extended from South Madhya Maharashtra, all the way down to the Comorin, cutting across interior Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu.

Elsewhere, pre-monsoon cyclonic circulations are spotted over Bihar, with a trough extending to Vidarbha, South interior Karnataka, and South Tamil Nadu.

As a result, the IMD has forecast the all-too-familiar pattern of violent weather (thunderstorms and lightning) over parts of North-West India, East India and the South Peninsula for the rest of the day today (Friday).

Thunderstorms and lightning accompanied by (i) hail and squall (60 km/hr) are likely over Uttarakhand; (ii) squall (60 km/hr) over Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; (iii) hail and gusty winds (50 km/hr) over Himachal Pradesh; (iv) gusty winds (50 km/hr) over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry; (v) gusty winds (30-40 km/hr) over South interior Karnataka, Kerala, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Sikkim, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.

THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Thunderstorms and lightning are likely at isolated places over Odisha. Thunderstorms/ dust storms and lightning accompanied by gusty winds (40 km/hr) may hit isolated places over Rajasthan.

Heat wave conditions may persist over Vidarbha and Telangana. Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

As for tomorrow (Saturday), heavy rainfall has been forecast over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which the IMD is expected to monitor closely for signs of arrival of the monsoon.

Thunderstorms and lightning accompanied by (i) gusty winds (50 km/hr) are likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and (ii) gusty winds (40 km/hr) over the hills of Bengal and Sikkim.

Thunderstorms and lightning are likely over Odisha, even as heat wave conditions may prevail over over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana in the neighbourhood.

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