Thunderstorms and bouts of heavy rain may lash parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the next two to three days ahead of the onset of monsoon. India Met Department (IMD) predicted the onset to happen around June 6, which is 'slightly delayed' than the normal date of June 1.

Shear zone soon

An East-West shear zone featuring monsoon turbulence, an essential determinant of strong onset conditions, is likely to develop across extreme South Peninsula from June 5 onwards. This, the IMD said, would lead to favourable conditions for onset of the monsoon, which would be declared once a series of qualifying conditions are met with.

From June 8 to 10, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall over parts of East India, North-East India, the South Peninsular India and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Isolated heavy falls has been forecast over the plains of Bengal, Odisha, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala while it would be isolated to scattered over the hills of the Himalayas.

A cyclonic circulation lies over Lakshadweep and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea, and may move westwards (into the open waters and away from the Kerala coast) without any intensification during next two days. This is normally suggests intensification into a cyclone and a movement towards the Oman/Yemen coast as has often happened in recent years. But not this year, the IMD seems to suggest.

To boost flows

Instead, it would intensify and would strengthen cross- equatorial monsoon flows over the Southern parts of South Arabian Sea, favouring the advance of the monsoon during the next two days.

On Monday, the Sri Lankan Met Department said that the South-West monsoon conditions are getting established gradually over the island nation, delayed by at almost a fortnight. Normally, the monsoon takes a week to reach Kerala from Sri Lanka, but it may not take that long this time round, if IMD predictions are anything to go by.

Showery and windy conditions are expected to enhance over the Island (particularly over the South-Western parts) from tonight (Monday night), the Sri Lankan Met Department said. Showers will occur at times over the in Western, Southern, Central, Sabaragamuwa and North-Western provinces and over the Jaffna district.

Heavy falls about 10 cm can be expected at some places in Sabaragamuwa, Central, Western and North-Western provinces and in Galle and Matara districts this evening. Fairly heavy falls above five cm can be expected at some places in the Eastern and Uva provinces. Fairly strong gusty winds up to 50 km/hr are also likely over the country, particularly around the central hilly areas.

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