Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrashekhar Rao has announced his support for YSR Congress Party President Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. The aim is to sweep the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the two Telugu-speaking states – 25 in Andhra and 17 in Telangana, between the two parties. Jagan will also be aiming for the chief minister’s chair as Andhra votes to elect its Legislative Assembly concurrently with the Lok Sabha election.
But how will this alliance impact the two parties and is there a possibility that KCR’s support may actually end up hurting Jagan?
KCR’s History of Unpopularity in Andhra
First, does KCR hold sway in Andhra Pradesh? To understand that, let’s look back at the history of India’s youngest state, and the events that led to its formation. In 2009, K Chandrashekhar Rao pulled an 11-day fast to pressure the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre to announce the process for the formation of a new state.
Soon after the announcement, violent protests erupted in coastal Andhra and Rayalseema, highlighting just how unpopular Rao and his demand for a separate Telangana were in those regions.
On 23 December 2009, exactly a fortnight after the initial announcement, the UPA government put the decision on hold. KCR, and Telangana would have to wait.
But the agitation continued. At the fag end of UPA-2, political pressures forced the government to finally give in. KCR emerged victorious in the election that followed, winning 63 of the 119 seats in Telangana’s inaugural Legislative Assembly.
His acrimony with AP hadn’t ended though – at his first meeting with select government employees on 22 May 2014, ahead of assuming office in June, KCR triggered a fresh wave of controversy by declaring that those who belong by birth or domicile to Seemandhra should not work for the Telangana administration. He was quoted as saying then, “All non-locals will have to go. There is no compromise on this.”
Long story short, KCR isn’t very popular in Andhra, with the bitterness of bifurcation and the tiffs that followed being the primary reason.
Therefore, YSR Congress chief Jagan stands the risk of drawing the displeasure of voters in AP by being seen as a close ally of KCR.
The KCR-Owaisi-Jagan Combine: Contenders in 42 Lok Sabha Seats
So what does Jagan stand to gain by being pally with KCR? TRS spokesperson Abid Rasool Khan claims, "I feel that KCR’s appeal (to support Jagan) will definitely impact a percentage of Andhra voters who are either interested in Telangana or related to Telangana in some way. We look to him (Jagan) to reciprocate by being part of the front.”
The front he’s referring to is the (potential) non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front, a coalition that KCR has been seen trying to forge. Getting Jagan on board makes the alliance a contender in 42 Lok Sabha seats.
With Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM also an ally of KCR’s, the strength of these three parties in the two Telugu-speaking states could prove to be crucial in a post-poll scenario where neither the BJP-led NDA nor the Congress-led gathbandhan manages to cobble up the numbers needed to form government.
Given KCR’s long-standing feud with TDP leader and Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu, the TRS chief’s support for Jagan is not surprising. Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was reduced to 2 seats in the Telangana Assembly elections of 2018, a far cry from the 15 it had won in the 2014 polls. A loss in his home state of Andhra Pradesh would further dent the TDP and bring cheer to the TRS camp.
If recent surveys are to be believed, Jagan and his YSRCP seem to be holding an edge over Naidu’s TDP in Andhra Pradesh. A survey aired by India Today in the middle of September 2018 found that 43 percent of those polled wished to see Jagan as the state’s next chief minister, while only 38 percent hoped for the return of incumbent Chandrababu Naidu.
However, Jagan would do well to walk the tightrope between continuing to be KCR’s ally and yet not giving him much campaign space in Andhra Pradesh, where his proximity to the TRS chief could end up hurting the YSRCP’s prospects.
KCR Cosying up to the BJP?
The thing with leaders like Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik in Odisha and TRS’ K Chandrashekhar Rao in Telangana is that right up to the general election, and possibly beyond it too, there will be endless curiosity as to which side they prefer - the BJP or the Congress.
While leaders like Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Naidu in AP, and Mamata in West Bengal are openly engaging with the Opposition gathbandhan, it is the supposedly ‘equidistant’ players like Patnaik and Rao who have the political speculation mills buzzing.
Given how the TRS dominated the December 2018 polls, winning 88 seats out of 119, an encore in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections seems probable. Therefore, it is no secret that the BJP will be looking to court KCR as a prospective ally. That KCR’s main opposition in the state is the Congress, with 21 Assembly seats, makes the BJP more of a ‘natural’ ally.
The “B-team” barbs and allegations are already flying in all directions, and the Congress is questioning the TRS’ silence on the two major Opposition protests in the last couple of weeks, one held in Kolkata by Mamata and the other in Delhi by Chandrababu, both against the BJP government.
So, will KCR maintain his studied silence, or will he announce in the coming weeks that he backs Narendra Modi to return as Prime Minister in the 17th Lok Sabha? If he does the latter, there would of course be the small irony of the TRS being allies with both Owaisi’s AIMIM and the BJP, two parties who seemingly don’t quite see eye to eye. It would also destroy the goodwill that KCR enjoys among Muslims.
The same applies to Jagan as well. While the YSRCP hasn’t taken part in any of the Mahagathbandhan events, it isn’t openly cosying up to the BJP either. Being seen as a BJP ally would only harm its popularity among Muslims, Christians and Dalits in Andhra and help Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party.
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