The New IRA is back with a vengeance as political folly swings a wrecking ball through the heart of the Northern Irish peace process
THE Troubles in Northern Ireland were meant to have been consigned to the dustbin of history but now there is a real risk that they could return with a vengeance.
In a disturbing indicator of this renewed friction, on Monday there was a bomb explosion at a road junction in Co Fermanagh, close to the border with the Irish Republic.
Fortunately no one was injured, but the clear intention of the attack was to kill police officers and British Army personnel.
The terrorists had not only planted a hoax device nearby but had also given a telephone warning in an attempt to lure the security forces to the area.
This incident was just the latest in a lengthening catalogue of intimidation and butchery by dissident Irish Republicans, who have never accepted the peace process and yearn for the dark days of the armed struggle against British rule.
Their outlook is ruthlessly uncompromising. Their chosen tactics are assassinations, bombings, hijackings, and punishment beatings.
Only last week, in addition to the Fermanagh bomb, a Belfast man in his 40s had his legs shot in a paramilitary-style punishment shooting, while 54-year-old Malcolm McKeown, a known criminal with links to the loyalists, was shot six times at a petrol station in Co.Down.
According to the Public Prosecution Service, cases of violence in Northern Ireland are up six per cent in the last year.
Brutal sectarianism is also on the rise.
Bloodthirsty factions
On Monday, the Northern Irish police specifically put the blame for the Fermanagh border attack on either of two organisations: Continuity IRA and the larger, even more vicious New IRA.
Between them, these two tightly-knit groups — fuelled by an estimated £50million from organised crime, including drug-dealing and goods smuggling — are responsible for most of the Republican paramilitary activity over the last two decades.
This includes a spate of gun and bomb attacks on the police during riots in Londonderry last July, or the assassination of journalist Lyra McKee in the same city this April.
The New IRA is said to be well-equipped with weapons formerly used by the Provisionals, especially deadly Russian AK-47 assault rifles, alongside a plentiful supply of ammunition.
"These people are b******s to the core, and they are now actually getting harder to pin down. They’re armed and deadly and, yes, they’ve been showing their strength and fresh recruitment in recent months and weeks," said a security source last year of the New IRA.
New figures released this week show that in the last three years, places of worship in Northern Ireland have been attacked 445 times.
This kind of turmoil is promoted by dissident groups, who dogmatically oppose all the steps towards the peace deal.
Steeped in the blood-soaked, hate-filled ideology of fundamentalist Republicanism, they refuse to embrace political dialogue and instead seek the triumph of their violent creed.
The Continuity IRA and the New IRA
The Continuity IRA was formed in 1986 after a split in the Republican movement triggered by the hardliners’ rejection of the leadership’s decision to engage in mainstream Irish politics.
But it was not until 1994, when the main IRA formally declared a ceasefire, that Continuity IRA began its terrorist campaign, largely targeted at the police and British Army.
Small in number, with an estimated membership of only between 50 and 150, the group’s effectiveness has been further weakened by informers and disputes.
Nevertheless, Continuity IRA has sporadically perpetrated a series of attacks, most notably the fatal shooting in 2009 of Stephen Carroll, the first police officer to be killed by paramilitary activity since the Good Friday Agreement.
The New IRA is seen by many as even more dangerous.
It was created in 2012 by a merger of the ultra militant Real IRA and several other splinter outfits, including Republican Action against Drugs.
The Real IRA was responsible for a bomb attack on the town of Omagh in 1998 which killed 29 people, the single worst atrocity in the history of the Troubles.
Again, like Continuity IRA, the New IRA is small in numbers.
In 2012 the police estimated that the group had no more than "250 and 300 military activists, backed up by associates."
It still has the capacity to inflict mayhem, as highlighted by its killing of two prison officers in 2016.
Politicians fuelling the flames
Tragically, the British and Ulster politicians are fuelling the flames of this worrying descent into criminal extremism.
One of the central pillars of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement was the establishment of democratic, power-sharing institutions which recognised the interests of both the Unionist and Nationalist identities in Northern Ireland.
But since January 2017, these institutions have been suspended because of a breakdown in relations between the DUP and Sinn Fein, the two largest parties in Ulster.
In this paralysing vacuum, reconciliation is undermined and the hardliners gain ground.
No Deal divisions
After Monday’s attack in Fermanagh, the Deputy Chief Constable of Northern Stephen Martin was frank about the potential impact of the continuing stalemate.
"We need a society led by our politicians to absolutely set out, not just condemn, but to work together," he said.
Martin added that things "are becoming more entrenched and the progress that has been made is slipping back a bit".
The situation will become infinitely worse if the Tory party do not keep their promise of avoiding a Hard Border between the north and the south in the event of a No Deal Brexit.
Good Friday gambled
This week, the Chief Constable of Northern Ireland Simon Byrne went so far as to warn on the BBC that the fragile, uncertain political situation was becoming a "breeding ground for dissident hate" and that "speculation around different forms of Brexit" were heightening tensions.
As someone who grew up in Belfast at the height of the Troubles during the 1970s, I am dismayed at this political folly, which risks throwing away all that has been achieved since 1998.
The Good Friday Agreement was one of the most inspirational events of my lifetime, a historic moment when hands met across the divide.
A recent report from two academics for the Irish Parliament claimed that, thanks to more than two decades of relative peace, there is a danger of romanticising the Troubles and glamorising the historic violence.
Having grown up against the backdrop of bombings and intimidation, with troops and checkpoints on every urban street, there is no risk of that with me.
In the week of the 50th anniversary of Lord Mountbatten’s assassination, I cannot forget that one of my fellow school pupils was also killed on the boat.
There is nothing to look back on with nostalgia.
But all the signs are that the peace process is under threat.
Unmatched terrorist threat
In December 2017, MI5 stated that Northern Ireland had the highest level of terrorist activity in Europe, with potential attacks occurring every week.
There is no sign of any let-up.
Only this week, Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin said that there had been at least five dissident attempts to murder police officers this year, like an incident in Craigavon in July, when the Continuity IRA unsuccessfully tried to use a booby trap bomb against a police patrol.
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These paramilitary brutes cannot be allowed to carry on disrupting the peace.
But to ensure their demise, the politicians will have to create an environment where they cannot flourish.
And that means the British Government will have to show far more adroitness than it has until now.
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