Decoding the logic behind NDA’s seat-sharing equation in Tamil Nadu

Updated Feb 21, 2019 | 12:34 IST | Jitendra Singh

It is the absence of a charismatic political figure at the helm of affairs of any political party, a first for the state in the last 50 years, that seems to have helped forge the recent alliance in Tamil Nadu.

 A confident Union minister Piyush Goyal, claimed that the alliance will sweep Tamil Nadu in 2019 and win all the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state
A confident Union minister Piyush Goyal, claimed that the alliance will sweep Tamil Nadu in 2019 and win all the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state  |  Photo Credit: ANI

New Delhi: The forthcoming elections in Tamil Nadu will be fought in the absence of two of the most charismatic leaders of the state - DMK's Kalaignar M Karunanidhi and AIADMK's Puratchi Thalaivi J Jayalalithaa.

The absence of both these political stalwarts may have been the cause of concern for their respective party leaders and cadres. The BJP-led  National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to have sensed this trepidation in the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) ranks and files and has moved in swiftly and smartly to ink a pre-poll deal on seat-sharing with the AIADMK and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) just ahead of the forthcoming general elections.

Under the understanding reached between the BJP, the AIADMK and the PMK on 19 February for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, out of the total 40 seats (which include one Puducherry seat) the BJP has been allotted 5 while PMK has been given 7 seats, including one Rajya Sabha seat to contest.

Going by above seat arithmetic, out of the total 40 Parliamentary seats (39 in Tamil Nadu and 1 in Puducherry), the AIADMK and other possible allies (TMC, DMDK) will be contesting 28, including one in the Union Territory of Puducherry. Apart from the AIADMK, the other possible allies in the NDA in Tamil Nadu could be the Tamil Manila Congress (TMC) led by GK Vasan and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) led by the Tamil actor Vijayakanth. Negotiations with Vijayakanth’s DMDK party are in the final stages, as reported by the Times of India).

Having fixed the alliance, BJP’s key negotiator for the state and Union Minister Piyush Goyal said, “I am extremely delighted that the AIADMK and the BJP have concluded a very fruitful discussion and agreed to contest the parliamentary elections both in Tamil Nadu and by-elections to 21 seats together in alliance, along with other friendly partners."

For the BJP, this foray into the southern state is commendable as it has been able to win the support of the Anbumani Ramadoss-led PMK who according to the Times of India initially wanted to side with the DMK-Congress pre-poll tie-up. PMK, which remains an important regional player, boasts of the support of  Vanniyaar community concentrated in the northern Tamil Nadu. More importantly, the vote bank of PMK is reported to have swung between 5 to 10 percent in almost all the successive general elections since 1999.

Logic at play

This time, since the elections in the state, will be fought in the absence of any of the prominent leaders (either from DMK or AIADMK), forging an alliance by both the major political affiliations was the most natural development before the election.

Since both the key players have been suffering from a leadership crisis, none of them probably had the prospects and confidence to do better; especially when other ‘regional satraps' have started asserting their role in the political space of the state.

For AIADMK, the alliance would be helpful to consolidate its confused vote bank which in the absence of the ‘Amma’ charisma, could easily drift to other camps.

Besides, on the negative side, if they lose in the state, the alliance with BJP-led NDA may help them certain strength at the Centre.

The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way represent those of Times Network.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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