The Mississippi and St. Croix rivers have reached their crests and are forecast to ever-so-gradually decline over the next week, thanks to a slow thaw and no added rain in recent weeks.
In downtown St. Paul, the Mississippi River crested Sunday at 19.83 feet — roughly equal to last week’s National Weather Service forecast of 20 feet.
In Stillwater, the St. Croix River crested Monday afternoon at roughly 88.5 feet — keeping it relatively safely in its “moderate” flood stage.
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Weeks ago, weather officials said there was a chance — slim, but still notable — the rivers could break records, with a sudden thaw. The National Weather Service’s long-range models put the chance of the St. Croix at Stillwater hitting its “major” flood stage at 95 percent.
But that didn’t happen.
“This snow melt has really worked out in our favor. We really only had one really warm day. … and it kept dropping below freezing at night,” said Doug Berglund, emergency management director for the Washington County Sheriff’s Office.
On top of that, it didn’t rain.
“We’ve obviously been really lucky with the forecast, with the lack of rain. I don’t think anyone expects to have a dry month in March, and we’ve had that,” said Stillwater Mayor Ted Kozlowski.
St. Paul was equally quiet over the weekend, noted public works spokeswoman Lisa Heibert.
Still, public safety officials in both cities urged caution: the river remains high and aggressive, and the ground saturated. A thunderstorm over the next couple of weeks could make the river churn even higher — and the pace of the expected decline over the next week is slow.
“We’re out of the woods for now, but we need to be cautious. Our concern continues to be the amount of moisture in the soil,” Berglund said.
“The ground’s still frozen. And if we get a substantial rain event, it’ll put us back up there,” said Stillwater Mayor Kozlowski.
For those reasons, city officials aren’t saying when they might be able to reopen closed roads. Sandbags block much of Stillwater’s shoreline, and St. Paul closed portions of Shepard Road near downtown and Water Street on the west side.
“It will take the water some time to recede almost 20 feet. There’s no date or time where we expect to reopen roads,” Heibert said. An emergency management staffer said not only do the waters need to recede, but the road tested for structural safety and debris cleared.
“That flood wall’s going to stay up probably a lot longer than people want it to,” said Kozlowski. “It’ll depend on the river dropping. The original plan (one week ago) was 30 days.”
As for boaters, city and county officials said they prefer you not be one.
“Large dead-heads (dead trees) are rolling right under the surface,” said Sgt. Kyle Schenck, who heads Washington County’s parks and trails unit. “
And those trees could easily take out a motor or cause a boat to come to a jarring, sudden halt.
“The biggest message we have is for people to stay off the river; it’s still fast-moving,” Heibert said.
There has been no Coast Guard notification to close the rivers to traffic, which means regular boating rules apply on the Mississippi. On the St. Croix, a “no wake” rule kicks in just before its minor flood stage, from Taylors Falls, Minn., to the confluence of rivers by Prescott, Wis.
