Game of Thrones was bigger than most movies. With its dedicated viewership and its massive cultural footprint, the HBO series became a global juggernaut that also launched a few breakout stars—including Sophie Turner, who played noblewoman and survivor Sansa Stark. While bettors might have had their fun guessing which Thrones character would take the Iron Throne, the next question might be: after Emilia Clarke, will Turner become the next Thrones star to transition into movie stardom?

As of now, the answer seems to hinge on Dark Phoenix, the just-released X-Men movie starring Turner in the lead role. It’s her second in the series, following her debut as Jean Grey in 2016’s X-Men: Apocalypse. Joining the franchise looked like a smart move for the young actress: boarding this project meant going from one big ensemble series to another, and safely positioning herself in an iconic role (Jean Grey) in a beloved superhero saga. Dark Phoenix also puts Turner’s Grey more front and center, revolving around the telekinetic mutant as she becomes dangerously powerful and transforms into the titular Dark Phoenix.

The problem? Dark Phoenix wound up fumbling at the box office. The film, which premiered Friday, had the lowest opening in X-Men history, bowing second to The Secret Life of Pets 2 at the domestic box office. And while its global take made Dark Phoenix the No. 1 movie in the world and put it on track to earn back its reported $200 million budget, even that good news comes with a downside: the film was picked apart by critics (it currently stands at 23% on Rotten Tomatoes), who slammed Turner’s mostly one-note portrayal of the tormented Jean. The movie is reportedly poised to lose $100 million by the end of its run, a major disappointment for a franchise with as much recognizability as the X-Men.

So, what does all this mean for Turner? According to at one analyst, she’ll most likely be just fine.

“She is jumping from one of the most iconic characters on the small screen to one of the most iconic characters on the big screen,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for ComScore, in an interview. “It’s never a bad thing on your CV.”

And even if the film underperformed, he pointed out, Turner is still the lead in the current highest-grossing movie in the world—a valuable fact on its face. “That’s a lot of people from many different cultures and countries seeing Sophie Turner beyond the Sansa Stark role, and that’s no small thing…that’s a currency that really is profound in its impact.”

Though Turner is the central figure in every Dark Phoenix poster, perhaps it also helps that this is an X-Men movie—inherently an ensemble feature, and not a standalone movie along the lines of Captain Marvel. Had the latter film, starring Brie Larson in the titular role, flopped, its lead likely would have shouldered a lot of the blame. Dark Phoenix, meanwhile, juggles so many famous characters that Turner shares this disappointment with the rest of her cast, which includes big stars James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, and Jennifer Lawrence. The movie was also plagued by endless and widely reported behind-the-scenes struggles, including hand-wringing over the underperformance of Apocalypse and extensive reshoots that spelled trouble early on. The release was endlessly delayed as well—in part, reportedly, because James Cameron was angling for a better release date for Alita: Battle Angel, which pushed Dark Phoenix to the summer, even though the X-men film had originally been planned for a moody winter release.

Had Turner turned out a stellar performance despite this lackluster material, she might have been able to parlay that into audience goodwill, as Margot Robbie did with her celebrated Harley Quinn in Suicide Squad. The D.C. movie was a critical flop, but fared well enough at the box office to vault Robbie into another tier of stardom; it also landed her a Harley Quinn spinoff, the upcoming Birds of Prey. And though Turner may not manage that with her lukewarm Dark Phoenix reviews, she’s achieved something similar by proving herself particularly adept at the art of the press tour—garnering charming headlines for her off-the-cuff remarks on Twitter and in interviews. Perhaps this means that ”Sophie Turner, personality” will remain forceful enough to withstand the disappointments of ”Sophie Turner, movie star.”

As it stands, the biggest post-Thrones film star has yet to truly emerge. Emilia Clarke has tried a handful of different vehicles already, finding success with the romantic (and problematic) Me Before You in 2016, and landing a lead role in Solo: A Star Wars Story (a neat opportunity, though the film didn’t quite take off like other Star Wars films). Meanwhile, Kit Harington has also found some success by turning to comedy, hosting Saturday Night Live and doing voice work in the How to Train Your Dragon series. Maisie Williams, who played Arya Stark, has taken the same route as Turner, landing a lead role in The New Mutants—a dark X-Men spin-off that has also been delayed for years. Richard Madden, who was killed off of Thrones in season three, might actually be most poised to take the throne, thanks to the crazy global success of his series Bodyguard, his role in the Elton John biopic Rocketman, and his rumored turn as the next James Bond—which has certainly boosted his profile, whether or not his casting actually comes to pass.

The bottom line, really, is that the film industry is mercurial. Even a leg up as a cast member on one of the biggest TV shows in the world doesn’t necessarily translate to big-screen stardom—which is still lucrative and appealing, even if it’s no longer the be-all, end-all for performers that it was before the Peak TV era. Perhaps now that Sansa is behind her and she’s given the superhero world a go, Turner could wind up taking the Robert Pattinson route instead—that is, trading in that Thrones cache to star in smaller, weirder, auteur-driven projects that show off her acting range, rather than her box office appeal. She could even, dare we say it, go back to television to find those kinds of roles: “There’s no bias and stigma like there once was,” Dergarabedian noted. And per Turner’s upcoming slate, it does seem that she is going down that path. Her next projects include Broken Soldier and Heavy—two films about which little is known, though they are both decidedly non-superhero movies that will, hopefully, test her talent in different ways. Until then, she’ll continue to be the best Thrones star on Twitter—a win unto itself.

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