Politics

“‘Do We Really Know Her?’”: With Iowa Looming, Knives Come Out for Elizabeth Warren

It’s now or never to scramble the race and become the Biden alternative. And “there is always an underdog who rises,” says a former Obama aide.

By Chris Smith

October 23, 2019

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It has been a remarkably polite primary campaign. The direct Democrat-on-Democrat action has been rare: Kamala Harris, in the first debate, blistering Joe Biden over busing; John Delaney flailing at pretty much everyone. With Biden the only well-known contender, the rest of the field has spent the past year focused on introducing themselves to a national audience. And they have all been very happy to train their fire on President Donald Trump instead of one another.

Now, though, the Iowa caucuses are a mere three months away. The recent media focus on impeachment had frozen the race, helping the front-runners and escalating a sense of urgency in the rest of the field. “The big question here is: Can anyone stop Elizabeth Warren?” says Jeff Link, a top Iowa Democratic strategist who is unaffiliated this time around. “She’s built a pretty amazing operation. This really might be a question of who’s going to get second place.”

So the nastiness is starting to kick in. Several of Warren’s rivals used the fourth Democratic debate to attack her lack of specificity on funding Medicare for All—not so much because of differences on policy, but to try to paint the Massachusetts senator as evasive. “Nobody votes on policy proposals,” says Jen Psaki, a former top aide to President Barack Obama. “These attacks go more to the heart of questioning who she is: ‘Do we really know her? What’s her character?’ That’s what they’re trying to get at. They are making the calculation that people in Iowa are going to start voting soon, and if they’re ever going to make a move, they need to make a move now. And that could mean positioning themselves as the alternative to Biden. Who can take on Warren and the progressive wing of the party effectively?”

Jennifer Palmieri, who was Hillary Clinton’s communications director in 2016, saw the shift in tone coming two weeks ago. “A ‘Warren’s too liberal’ freakout could accelerate,” Palmieri told me. “Combine that with candidates in their 70s not looking like such a great bet after Bernie Sanders’s heart problem, which could hurt Biden, and people will start looking for a moderate alternative.”

Some of those options—like renewed chatter about Michael Bloomberg running—are implausible and out of touch with the progressive surge in the party. But there is a real restlessness among Democratic elites, couched in concerns about Warren’s ability to beat Trump, who are growing fearful that she may actually win and raise their taxes. There is definitely anxiety about Warren,” says Matt Bennett, a cofounder of Third Way, a centrist think tank. “Everybody acknowledges that Warren is incredibly smart and an incredibly gifted campaigner. But she has taken positions that are very nerve-racking, that are gonna be hard to defend in a general election.”

Pete Buttigieg is doing everything but jumping up and down to position himself as the best fallback option for moderates. He strafed Warren over health care in the debate, then told reporters in Chicago, “If you want the left-most-possible candidate, you’ve got a clear choice. If you want the candidate with the most years in Washington, you’ve got a clear choice. For everybody else, I just might be your person.”

Buttigieg’s aggressive debate performance got plenty of attention, but he’s also been using a quieter, more methodical approach, beginning in August with a pair of radio ads in rural Iowa. Along with Amy Klobuchar, of Minnesota, Buttigieg has some potential demographic advantages as a white Midwesterner running in a very white Midwestern state. The tactics and familiarity are showing signs of paying off. A poll on Monday had Buttigieg vaulting past Sanders and into third place in Iowa, gaining seven points since June. Which earned Mayor Pete a whack of his own: Bloomberg News revealed that his old pal Mark Zuckerberg had recommended multiple potential hires for Buttigieg’s campaign.

The Iowa race remains incredibly fluid, with the pool of undecided voters growing. “National coverage and cable coverage and social media are playing into people’s perceptions in a way that they haven’t in the past,” Psaki says. “What I don’t think gets talked about enough is the fact that, despite some flubs and some gaffes, and despite not having the biggest rallies, Biden still really hasn’t moved in the polls. But there is always a front-runner who falls and there is always an underdog who rises. If that doesn’t happen this year, that would be the uncommon thread.”

Buttigieg is about to get another major chance to capitalize on his momentum. The Iowa Democratic Party fall dinner is on November 1. “The dinner has been a pivotal moment in caucus campaigns in previous years,” Link says. “And it kind of feels like this is going to be a big moment in the 2020 race.” Fourteen Democratic candidates will be in attendance. Buttigieg, by the luck of the draw, will speak first.

Chris Smith

Contributing Editor