In 2008, the then Wales Under-20s coach Patrick Horgan boldly predicted five of his players would feature for Warren Gatland’s senior squad within a year.
Sure enough, Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Biggar, Jonathan Davies, Dan Evans and Sam Warburton had won full caps by the time the summer of 2009 had finished, with Halfpenny considered enough of a prospect to be selected for the Lions tour of South Africa that year before injury caused him to withdraw.
Wherever Horgan bought his crystal ball from, he received serious value for his money.
But for every spot-on prediction of how a young player will fare in the senior game, there can be five that don’t work out as expected.
Famously, Sean Fitzpatrick stormed into a TV studio shouting “Christian Cullen, Christian Cullen” after watching Jordan Williams tear up the 2013 Junior World Championship. Rhys Priestland was to later call Williams “probably the best young player I’ve ever seen”.
Six years on, Williams is still waiting for his first cap.
Were it a different era he might have figured 30 or so times for Wales by now.
But at a time when brick outhouses can be found everywhere you look on a rugby field, and few bat an eyelid when a 6ft 4in, 17st chap takes his position on the wing, the 5ft 8in, 12st 10lb Williams faced obstacles that previous generations of back-three men didn’t tend to encounter.
The sport has become a power game and anyone lacking the requisite physical dimensions is disadvantaged before he even gets going at senior level.
But if you pack that power, blend it with talent and courage, throw in a dash of steely resolve and add a twist of luck, you might just have a chance of going all the way.
The Wales side that has finished sixth in the World Rugby U20 Championship had a number of excellent individuals but also an unreliable set-piece platform and found themselves starved of ball in several games.
They were forced to rely too much on their defence and while a number of players fronted up, the team averaged more than 32 missed tackles a game.
Their attacking play behind the scrum also failed to function in every match.
A story of pluses and minuses, then.
Here are the highs and lows...
BEST PLAYERS
Take a bow Dewi Lake, Tommy Reffell and Jac Morgan.
Reffell has an abrasive edge and finished top tackler in the tournament with 75.
A tough nut who doesn’t fixate on his own welfare, he also made a big mark at the breakdown alongside Morgan, an openside wearing a No. 8 jersey.
The pair caused opponents no end of problems with their ability to turn ball over, but maybe the player with the best chance of climbing quickly to the top in the senior game is skipper Lake.
The converted back rower does need to work on his throwing, because the line-out is so important and a hooker can’t afford to be unreliable in that area.
But he is a leader who has the Alun Wyn Jones trait of inspiring those around him.
The 6ft 1in, 17st 4lb youngster carries like a bulldozer, stacks up tackles and repeatedly poses a threat at the breakdown. Indeed, one particular effort in that area against New Zealand set the tone for the rest of the game.
The Baby Blacks had started at breakneck pace, taking the ball through numerous phases until they were barely a metre from Wales’ line. A try looked as sure as night following day, only for Lake to come up with a possession steal.
That’s leadership by example, for those in any doubt.
“He’s going to be quality,” said Wales’ World Cup hooker from 2015, Scott Baldwin.
“He just needs to work on his throwing.
“I’m hoping Ospreys head coach Allen Clarke, a former hooker himself, will be good for him.
“I know they’ve signed a forwards coach everyone speaks highly of, but he’s not a hooker.
“Specialist knowledge counts for a lot.
“Maybe Jonathan Humphreys could support Allen with Dewi when he comes in as Wales forwards coach after the World Cup.
“Humph was great for me, and he could be the same for Dewi if he gets around the regions.”
The Ospreys will want to bring Lake through at the right speed, taking care not to jump any stages of his development, but the former star schoolboy gymnast looks an immense prospect.
If he fails to make it, something will have gone badly wrong.
BEST WELSH TRY
Cai Evans’ crossfield kicks helped set up a couple of scores, and easy on the eye they were, too, while connoisseurs of driving line-out touchdowns had much to get excited about.
But maybe the best try from a Welsh player was the first one the team scored in the tournament.
It saw Jac Morgan do supremely well to flick a pass behind him from a retreating scrum near halfway. Harri Morgan immediately sensed something was on and a short break preceded a deft kick through from the former Cardiff City schoolboy footballer which sat up nicely for Rio Dyer.
Tracking the ball, Morgan stayed in support to accept Dyer’s pass before skipping past one would-be tackler and then leaving another in his wake as he touched down.
It was all done in a matter of seconds, blink-of-the-eye brilliance that showcased Harri Morgan’s skill, vision and opportunism.
BIGGEST HIT
Pacific island players have rattled the rib cages of countless Welsh players over the years — “time and again Welsh players at full-pelt were clobbered amidships and thundered back a yard or more”, wrote Frank Keating after Samoa’s famous World Cup win over Wales in 1991.
Fiji Under-20s also tackled hard in this tournament.
But Tommy Reffell administered some treatment of his own that was both fair and uncompromising, connecting emphatically with hooker Lino Mairara.
If Mairara were a car he would have needed a few panels replaced after the Wales No. 7 caught up with him.
BEST INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
It’s a crowded field, with Dewi Lake performing heroics against New Zealand, Tommy Reffell going head to head with Fiji’s big hitters, Tiaan Thomas-Wheeler shining in adversity against France and Jac Morgan also to the fore against the Baby Blacks.
But maybe the best show of the lot came from Harri Morgan in the game against Argentina.
The Pumitas just couldn’t handle his speed of thought or his speed of execution. He buzzed around the field, initiating moves and supporting them. He showed vision, kicked well and scored a lovely try.
It is hard to imagine there were many better individual efforts from anyone else in Argentina over the span of the championship.
Sadly for Morgan, medical issues were to ruin his tournament.
AREAS OF CONCERN
Let’s kick off with the line-out.
Conditions were dreadful against New Zealand but a representative team do not want to lose six out of 13 of their own throws as Wales did. They also saw five picked off out of 10 against France.
They were better in the other games but still prone to the odd lapse.
In all, 14 out of 65 Welsh line-outs were taken by the opposition.
The scrum was also under pressure in a number of games, while Wales were not consistently fluent when attacking behind the scrum.
And they missed too many tackles, completing 724 but seeing 161 attackers whizz past them.
Tommy Reffell and Jac Morgan were the best defenders.
Certain team-mates could take lessons.
BEST SPORTSMANSHIP
That would be Deon Smith going over to console Taine Plumtree amid the wild Welsh celebrations that greeted the final whistle and victory over New Zealand.
Lock Plumtree was distraught, on his haunches with head in hands.
Smith went over tapped him on the shoulder and said: “Hard luck, mate.”
It pointed to impressive generosity of spirit, a young player breaking off from the sweetest moment of his sporting life so far to commiserate with a beaten rival.
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FUNNIEST MOMENT
South African official Rasta Ravishenge wasn’t exactly enjoying Wales players appearing to repeatedly be on his case during the game against France in Rosario.
In fact, he sensed a respect-deficit as just about every one of the lads in red seemed to be shouting at him.
So Ravishenge had a word.
Except wires had been crossed.
“Ref, we have a player in our side called (Tommy) Reffell, so when the boys are calling out ‘Ref’ or ‘Reffy’ they are shouting to him, not to you,” explained Wales skipper Dewi Lake.
Confusion over.
MEDIA MATTERS
Not every press officer in the world sees it as his job to, er, help the press.
But the man in charge of media matters for the Wales team in Argentina, Graeme Gillespie, played a blinder, arranging interviews, sending across quotes and doing what he could to ensure a decent hearing for the Welsh youngsters.
Credit where credit's due.
BEST STAT
Wales beat New Zealand 8-7 despite spending only 26 seconds in the opposition 22.
Not since David Copperfield made the Statue of Liberty vanish have we quite seen anything like it.
