IOWA CITY, Iowa — Joe Biden’s supporters are setting their expectations low for his performance in the Feb. 3 caucuses despite their optimism he can win the 2020 Democratic nomination.
Polling ahead of the nation’s first nominating contest shows the former vice president and Delaware senator with a chance of winning. But he’s effectively dead-even or slightly behind 2020 Democratic rivals such as former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Biden supporters planning to caucus for him say they’ve made peace with the chances of a win for Biden, 77, who is in his third presidential run.
“I can only judge by the polls and what I see, and he’s been in the top pack of candidates consistently since he got in the race. He seems to be at the top of his game,” said Tim Shriver, 58, who is caucusing for Biden in Iowa City. “If someone else, like Sanders, won, it would concern me because I don’t think Bernie is as electable as Biden. But Biden has broad support, there’s a long way to go. Iowa isn’t everything. Look at South Carolina.”
For months, Biden’s campaign aides have been telling the press and donors that they’ve been preparing for a long race. A win in early states such as Iowa or New Hampshire, they argue, isn’t necessary for their campaign and point to his solid support by black voters to help him shore up wins in Southern states.
An individual working for the Biden campaign told the Washington Examiner that the campaign hasn’t been making any predictions for where it will place. At this point, the campaign believes it will avoid an embarrassing finish and will not place below fourth.
Another person working for the Biden campaign said he believes that Iowa will cause a number of his competitors, such as Buttigieg, 38, and Warren, 70, to drop out. A two-person race, presumably against Sanders, 78, would work to Biden’s benefit.
“The stuff on Sanders’s background hasn’t even come out yet,” the person said.
[Read more: Biden battles to stave off Iowa humiliation]
The individual pointed to national polls that consistently put Biden in the lead. A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows Biden in first at 28.7% support, with Sanders in second at 23.4%.
Biden’s relationship with the black community has done much to calm the nerves of his supporters. Although Iowa is one of the whitest states in the country, many of those planning on caucusing for Biden are depending on a bailout from other states with a higher concentration of minority voters.
“He’s doing alright. I think he’ll certainly hold his own. I think it’ll be very, very close,” said Pete Wartimart, 50, who saw Biden speak in Marion. “Sanders winning would only concern me if he won by a landslide, but I don’t think that will happen. But I just don’t see Sanders competing with him in the South. Biden has, what, more African American support than all the other candidates combined? Who is going to break his bond with African Americans?”
Biden’s campaign is also banking on winning over former supporters of candidates such as New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who dropped out of the race earlier this month. The Biden campaign is further planning to court Democrats caucusing for Amy Klobuchar. In Iowa, the senator from neighboring Minnesota risks missing the 15% threshold of support, meaning those who initially backed her would be up for grabs in the second round of voting.
Iowa has previously proved tough terrain for Biden. In 1987, he was forced to drop out after admitting to plagiarizing portions of a speech he made at the Iowa State Fair, which opened up new questions about his credibility. And running for the 2008 Democratic nomination, Biden earned less than 1% of the vote at the Iowa caucuses and dropped out the next day.
“I can’t say how he’s doing in Iowa, it’s so close. Myself, I was undecided, then I saw him speak tonight, and I’ve decided to caucus for him,” said Ann Oxley, 59, who saw Biden speak in Iowa City on Monday. “I’m not concerned if someone like Bernie Sanders wins Iowa. Biden’s in it for the long haul.”
