Some Democrats are eyeing Texas as a longshot pickup in the 2020 presidential race. But Republicans who are keeping an eye on the national electoral landscape say the party should be more concerned that Arizona could go from red to blue this time around.
“Arizona typically has been, in a presidential year, somewhere around an eight-point Republican advantage and Trump only won Arizona with about three points. So, I definitely think Arizona is very competitive from my perspective,” Paul Bentz, vice president of research and strategy at High Ground, a Phoenix-based firm specializing in public opinion surveys, strategy, and campaign management, told the Washington Examiner. “Arizona is more likely to be a toss-up than Texas is.”
President Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win Arizona, in 1996. Before that, Democrat Harry S. Truman pulled an election upset when he won the presidency with Arizona in 1948 against Republican Thomas Dewey. Republican presidential nominees have won the Copper State in all the other election cycles.
In 2008, although then-Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama was a popular nominee who went on to win the presidency, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, his opponent, was still beloved among his constituents and captured his own state. McCain won 54% to 45%, a near inverse of the popular vote nationally.
But recent electoral trends in the state have Republican strategists concerned. The 2018 Senate victory of then-Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Green Party activist — the first in her party to be elected to the Senate since the 1980s — has Republicans reassessing their dominance.
“In 2018 instead of that typical 50% turnout that we’ve seen in the past, it was nearly 65% turnout. So not quite presidential level. But way beyond typical voter turnout,” Bentz said, noting independents in Arizona had participated at significantly higher rates than expected. There’s “a pretty extensive amount of voter interest, particularly among younger voters. Democrats over-participated by a point — nearly a point-and-a-half,” Bentz said.
Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, out of 538 overall, are a coveted prize for both parties. Republicans see the state as an insurance policy for holding the White House, while Democrats suggest it would be difficult for the GOP ticket to win without it.
In 2020, “there’s going to be a lot of enthusiasm and we expect a very high turnout election,” Bentz said.
Nathan Sproul, managing director of Lincoln Strategy Group and former executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, fears several reasons Arizona voters, including the usually reliable conservative voting bloc from members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, may not come around to Trump in 2020.
“Throughout eastern Arizona, most Latter-day Saints are Democrats. They are the quintessential swing voter. Because of their religious faith, they tend to align more closely with Republicans, but in many cases, like Mo Udall, they are third-, fourth- and fifth-generation Democrats,” Sproul writes at AZCentral.com.
Similar to Texas, Arizona is also seeing new young voters coming in from other states.
Sproul writes, “There are many new voters turning 18 or moving to Arizona from other places like California. This is a warning for all Republican candidates in Arizona. The electorate isn’t what it was 20 years ago.”
