SALT LAKE CITY — Last summer, tiny microbes reacting to changing levels of salinity in Great Salt Lake turned the water half red and half blue. It created a stunning visual image — and an apt metaphor for the political changes that are starting to happen in Utah.
If you’ve never been to Salt Lake City, you might assume that it’s a rather conservative, buttoned-up place. It was founded in 1847 by pioneers of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, the most heavily Republican-leaning religious group.
But Salt Lake City is diverse and progressive. In the past eight years, it’s been ranked as the third-most hipster city in the world, the queerest city in America, and the fourth-best city for millennials to live in. Millennials make up nearly half of the city’s mortgages, compared to the national average of 9%. Nearly 1 in 4 city residents is Hispanic. In some neighborhoods, two-thirds of school children speak Spanish at home.
While Utah as a whole remains predominantly Mormon, Salt Lake City, the state’s capital and largest city, is now majority non-Mormon. I recently spent several weeks in the city and met as many non-Mormons (evangelicals, Catholics, Jews, ex-Mormons, and even a few Scientologists) as I did Mormons.
To appreciate how defiantly progressive Salt Lake City is, take the TRAX light rail to Temple Square, the city center and heart of the Church. Church members are forbidden from consuming alcohol. But I counted at least a dozen bars within walking distance of Salt Lake Temple, including some that mock the Mormon culture with names like the Beer Hive Pub, the Tavernacle, and Ex-Wifes Place.
Or drive a few blocks south to Harvey Milk Boulevard and check out the Coffee Garden, Centered City Yoga, or Club Try-angles, which advertises itself as a “high-energy gay bar offering the coldest, cheapest and biggest drinks in town.”
“Salt Lake City is extremely progressive,” said Jennifer Daily-Provost, who represents Utah’s 24th Congressional District. Every legislative seat in the city is represented by a Democrat. Every mayor since 1976 has been a Democrat, including Jackie Biskupski, the city’s current and first openly gay mayor.
Daily-Provost has a friend who refers to the city as “Berkeley East.” Daily-Provost prefers to call it “a progressive oasis in a vast sea of red. I think most Republicans see it that way, and it drives them nuts that the capitol and [Salt Lake] Temple are both in my district.”
It’s been nearly 20 years since a Democrat won statewide office in Utah, and more than 50 years since a Democratic presidential candidate won the state.
But that sea of red is beginning to recede as young professionals from other states move in to take advantage of Utah’s job market, which ranks as the best in the nation.
Utah is the country’s fastest-growing state. Some of that growth is due to the high birthrate among Mormon families. But much of it comes from young people moving in from out of state, attracted by great jobs, a relatively low cost of living, and Utah’s natural beauty.
Salt Lake County’s population is projected to rise 50% by 2065, according to a University of Utah study. That’s an addition of nearly 600,000 people.
Many newcomers settle in the metropolitan area that stretches from Ogden to Provo, dubbed Silicon Slopes, where 80% of the state’s population lives.
Home to numerous start-ups and established software companies, medical device manufacturers and aerospace businesses, it’s been ranked as the fourth-best metro area in the country for tech jobs. Goldman Sachs, Adobe, and Twitter all have offices there.
Utah Democratic strategist Jim Gonzales sees the influx of people from high-tax, high-cost-of-living states such as California as helping Democrats. “They tend to be a little more socially progressive and well educated,” he said, adding that these migration patterns help to explain the parts of Salt Lake County where “the red wall may be falling down a little.” In 2016, more than 23,000 people moved to Utah from California alone. Few of them are Mormon.
In 2018, Democrats picked up one new state Senate seat and five state House seats. Their biggest prize was the 4th Congressional District seat, won by former Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, the first Utah Democrat to win an election for federal office since 2012. Voters also approved two progressive ballot initiatives: one to expand Medicaid, another to legalize medical marijuana.
Gonzales believes Democrats have also benefited from the chaos within the state Republican Party. “The Utah Republican Party is trying to decide whether it’s the Trump party or the Romney party,” he said. “They haven’t come close to deciding that yet.” In 2016, President Trump became the first Republican in more than half a century not to win a majority of Utah voters. He won less than a third of Salt Lake County voters.
Utah Republicans have also been fighting over the structure of their party. A 2014 law known as SB54 has divided the party. It allows candidates to appear on the ballot by gathering signatures rather than solely through the traditional caucus-convention route.
Last year, Mitt Romney’s effort to collect signatures while seeking the Republican nomination for Senate caused such a backlash among caucus-goers that a majority voted for state Sen. Mike Kennedy, forcing Romney into a primary.
The Utah Republican Party Central Committee fought the law all the way to the Supreme Court, which declined to hear the case, effectively ending the debate. The fight has reportedly bankrupted the state party. The ensuing turmoil caused the state chairman to resign last month.
The controversy isn’t being received well by rank-and-file Republicans. A survey by Dan Jones & Associates found that nearly two-thirds of Utah Republicans say the infighting has made them less supportive of the Utah Republican Party.
Salt Lake County Republican Party Chairman Scott Miller isn’t worried about the SB54 controversy. Instead, he’s focused on rebuilding the county party, which he says was “apathetic” when he took it over last summer. “We’d gotten so used to winning races with minimal effort,” he said. “But now that the dynamics of Salt Lake County have changed, we need to change.”
Miller is dismissive of local Democrats’ recent successes. “I don’t think the Democrats are doing anything different that they’ve ever done. I just think they’re getting lucky with the types of people that are moving in to the area.”
Lucky or not, Republicans are slowly losing ground beyond Salt Lake City. Republicans’ share of the vote decreased between 2016 and 2018 in 22 of the 23 Salt Lake County state House races in which both parties fielded candidates. The same thing happened in eight of 10 state senate races.
Besides lucky demographic changes, Miller blames the 2018 losses on those two ballot initiatives, which spurred record-high turnout. Scott said young voters “came out in droves” to help pass the measures.
But Democratic gains predate 2018. In the state House, for instance, Republican candidates in Salt Lake County lost vote share in more than two-thirds, 14 of 20, of eligible races between 2014 and 2016.
A couple of years ago, statistician Nate Silver predicted that Utah might be winnable for Democrats as early as 2024. In some ways, Utah “increasingly has the markers of a blue state, meaning high education levels, big tech sector, young population,” he said.
Silver’s prediction seems premature. Much of Utah is still deeply conservative.
Then again, if tiny microbes can suddenly change the color of Utah’s largest lake to a mix of red and blue, perhaps Democrats can do something similar to the state’s political map.
Daniel Allott (@DanielAllott) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner‘s Beltway Confidential blog. He is the author of Into Trump’s America and former deputy commentary editor at the Washington Examiner.
