Predictably, the European Union is refusing to help British Prime Minister Theresa May.
May was in Brussels on Friday attempting to win EU clarifications that would help her win parliamentary passage for her EU withdrawal deal. May has delayed a scheduled parliamentary vote on that deal in recognition of its exceptionally low likelihood of passing. But the EU was in no mood to offer new compromises. The political bloc says no changes are possible.
This has left May heading home to London embarrassed and weakened.
Still, it’s utterly unsurprising that the EU is behaving in this manner. While EU officials respect May as a leader who is dealing with a near-impossible hand, the EU have never seen this situation as about Brexit per se. Instead, they regard what’s at stake as the EU project itself. EU leaders recognize a rising tide of European national voices that are increasingly opposed to the EU’s arrogance, corruption, and ambition of building a United States of Europe. In turn, EU leaders believe that making Britain suffer in any Brexit deal is more important than a deal that balances EU-British mutual interests.
Their hope is that if Britain suffers, other European populations will be far more reluctant to vote for their own EU exits. While I suspect the EU’s systemic failings will lead to its ultimate demise (at least as a political project), EU leaders remain determined to prevail. And they are willing to do just about anything to do so.
So what happens next? Having survived a no-confidence vote and viewed as the best available leader in a moment of crisis, May is secure in her own Conservative Party — at least for the time being. But it’s not clear what happens when Parliament finally votes on her agreement. It’s likely that when it does, May’s deal will be destroyed. Then May will have to pick one of three difficult choices. First, to push ahead with a no-deal Brexit that causes short- to medium-term economic and social ruin. Second, to call another referendum to give voters a second chance to stay in the EU. Third, to call a general election that risks a fanatical socialist taking power.
Hopefully, parliamentarians will fear this lurking trinity of darkness and come around to supporting May’s deal. Toward that objective, President Trump can and should provide support to America’s closest ally here.
