Kamala Harris rises into second place in new Saint Anselm College poll of NH primary voters
California senator 3 percentage points behind Biden; Sanders drops to fifth place
California senator 3 percentage points behind Biden; Sanders drops to fifth place
California senator 3 percentage points behind Biden; Sanders drops to fifth place
Sen. Kamala Harris has moved into second place among Democratic presidential contenders, while Sen. Bernie Sanders has dropped into fifth place, in the latest New Hampshire primary poll conducted by Saint Anselm College.
Harris, apparently still resonating with voters following her debate performance more than two weeks ago, is backed by 17.5 percent of likely Democratic first-in-the-nation primary voters. That support puts her just more than 3 percentage points behind former Vice President Joe Biden, who received 20.8 percent.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is a close third, at 16.7 percent, less than a percentage point behind Harris. Sanders registered 9.9 percent, behind Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is fourth in the poll with 11.5 percent.
Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, after registering at 6.4 percent in a Saint Anselm College poll in April, received zero percent support in the new poll.
The Saint Anselm College Survey Center said it polled 351 registered voters expressing an intention to vote in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary between July 10 and 12. The survey center said the poll was conducted via landline and cellular telephone calls.
The poll’s margin of error is 5.2 percent, which means that the top three candidates -- Biden, Harris and Warren – are in a statistical tie.
View the poll summary and details here.
Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and the survey center, attributed Harris’ rise to the nationwide attention she received as a result of her showing at a June 27 debate in Miami, Florida.
Harris questioned Biden pointedly about his prior comments about his ability to work with former senators who were prominent segregationists and his opposition to federally ordered student busing as a means to achieve integration in the 1970s.
Levesque also said Harris showed strength in the poll because “she has been campaigning in New Hampshire.” The California senator campaigned in New Hampshire on Sunday, making two public stops, four days after the polling was completed. It was her first appearance in the state since May 15.
“A lot of the people who are very excited about voting are now for Harris,” Levesque said. “A strong second place at this point in time is very good news for Sen. Harris.”
Levesque cautioned, however, not to draw long-term conclusions from the poll results.
"We’re in the summer, and the voting will take place when there’s a lot of snow on the ground in New Hampshire,” Levesque said. “So, there’s a lot of time and this is just a snapshot in time. So, we’re not counting any of these other candidates out.”
According to the Real Clear Politics website, which records all polls nationally and in key states, the Saint Anselm poll is the first presidential poll of New Hampshire voters since mid-June.
In the most recent previous Saint Anselm poll, conducted in early April, Sanders was in second place with 15.6 percent, while Biden led with 22.9 percent. Buttigieg at that time was third with 10.7 percent and Warren was fourth at 8.7 percent.
Harris in April had the support of 6.8 percent. Her rise of 11 percentage points in four months “is very significant,” Levesque said.
Harris’ support appears to have been drawn from several other candidates, but most significantly from Sanders, whose support dropped by nearly 6 percentage points since the April poll. Biden dropped by 2 percentage points, while Buttigieg had a slight uptick in support.
In the new poll, the rest of the field showed entrepreneur Andrew Yang leading several elected officials, with 4.9 percent.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar registered 2.7 percent; author Marianne Williamson, 1.5 percent; Sen. Cory Booker, 1.2 percent; U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 1 percent; Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, 0.7 percent and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee at 0.3 percent.
The survey center did not include in its new poll a group of other candidates, including former U.S. Housing Secretary Julian Castro, former U.S. Rep. John Delaney, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, U.S. Reps. Seth Moulton and Tim Ryan, Sen. Michael Bennet, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock.
Favorable/unfavorable ratings
Among key findings in the poll, Biden continues to have a strong favorable rating among voters. The poll showed that 61.5 percent of those polled view Biden favorably while 26.2 percent view him unfavorably. In April, Biden was viewed favorably by 70.3 percent and unfavorably by 18.3 percent, while in a February Saint Anselm poll, Biden was viewed favorably by 80.3 percent and unfavorably by 12.8 percent.
Harris’ favorable rating jumped from 54.4 percent in April to 64.5 percent in the new poll, while 12.4 percent view her unfavorably, as compared to 9.9 percent in April.
Warren was viewed favorably by 65.6 percent in the new poll, as compared to 58.3 percent in April, while those viewing her unfavorably dropped from 29.7 percent in April to 20.3 percent.
Buttigieg’s name recognition grew from 70 percent in April to 89 percent in the new poll. He is currently viewed favorably by 61.7 percent and unfavorably by 8.4 percent.
Sanders, meanwhile, was viewed favorably by 55.2 percent in the new poll, as compared to 67.2 percent in April. He was viewed unfavorably by 33.5 percent in the new poll and by 24.9 percent in April.
The poll also indicates that overall, most voters no longer have a generally positive view of O’Rourke.
In February, 51.6 percent of those polled viewed him favorably and 8.2 percent viewed him unfavorably. In April, 46.3 percent viewed him favorably and 16.5 percent unfavorably.
But in the new poll, O’Rourke is viewed favorably by 29.8 percent and unfavorably by 31.7 percent of those polled.
Biden’s strongest support comes from older, more conservative voters. The poll shows that 53 percent of Biden supporters are age 55 or older. Harris’ support is spread more evenly among all age groups, while nearly 35 percent of Buttigieg’s support comes from voters between 18 and 54 years old.